Changes in Climate and Bioclimatic Potential in the Steppe Zone of Ukraine

Abstract

To increase the level of management efficiency in the agricultural sector of the economy, it is necessary to substantiate environmental protection measures for the restoration and rational use of natural resources, to ensure the implementation of the sustainable environmental management principles, considering the spatio-temporal patterns of changes in climate and bioclimatic potential of the territory. Using the methods of multivariate statistics and time series forecasting, regularities of changes in climatic conditions in the Steppe zone of Ukraine for 1945-2019 were established, and a forecast of changes in the bioclimatic potential of the region until 2030 was made. It was established that during the research period the average annual air temperature increased by 3.5 °C. The amount of annual atmospheric precipitation varied within 186-778 mm with a variation level of 27.2%, in the last 20 years it was determined to decrease by 40% -to 500-300 mm. It has been proven that the inertial probability of repeating hot years is estimated at 0.58, and the possibility of repeating wet years at 0.46. As a result of forecasting, it was determined that if the trend of climatic conditions is maintained, there will be a stable trend-cyclic increase in the average annual air temperature by 0.06 °C per year and a decrease in the amount of annual precipitation by 62.0 mm per year. This resulted in an 18.7% increase in solar radiation on the soil surface and a 26.0% decrease in climatic losses on soil formation, which reduced the rate of the natural ability to reproduce soil fertility. In particular, the bioproductivity of plants decreased by 62.0%, and the probability of its further decrease by 20% is predicted. Over the past 20 years, the coefficient of natural humidification has decreased by 66.4%, and it is predicted to decrease by 20%. The obtained results confirm significant climatic changes and their negative manifestations on the reduction of bioclimatic potential in the Steppe zone of Ukraine, the deterioration of agricultural production conditions, the reduction of harvests, the self-regenerating and self-regulating function of steppe soils.

Untitled

“…The developed crop yield models based on multiple correlation allow for predicting it. The results of the study can be useful in planning and optimising the activities of agricultural enterprises, and agriculture in general, in various natural and climatic zones of Ukraine, as a strategic branch of the economy Keywords: climate change; agricultural adaptability; heat-loving crops; abiotic factors; agroecosystems yield losses in all southern regions of Ukraine (Mirzoeva, 2022; Pichura et al, 2022).…”

Agroecological Assessment of Suitability of the Steppe Soils of Ukraine for Ecological Farming

“…The use of external energy sources, both chemical and organic, is limited as much as possible. In European countries, ecological farming is based on ecosystem management, rather than attracting resources from outside (Pichura et al, 2021b).…”

Productivity of Winter Wheat (T.Aestivum, T.Durum, T.Spelta) Depending on Varietal Characteristics in the Context of Climate Change

“…The consequences of global climate change are dangerous weather disasters, sudden weather changes, floods, strong winds, heavy rains and storms, hail, droughts, which lead to significant environmental and economic damage around the world and affect the yield of most crops, especially cereals (Clark et al, 2022). Climate changes are characterized by diversity, different levels of intensity of their manifestations, frequency of climate anomalies, periodicity of extreme weather events in space and time (Pichura et al 2022). Physicalgeographical Steppe zone is characterized by a high level of temperature regime, scarce, unstable and uneven distribution of precipitation that determe risky agricultural conditions and insufficient yields of agricultural crops (Pichura et al 2021).…”

“…Climate changes are characterized by diversity, different levels of intensity of their manifestations, frequency of climate anomalies, periodicity of extreme weather events in space and time (Pichura et al 2022). Physicalgeographical Steppe zone is characterized by a high level of temperature regime, scarce, unstable and uneven distribution of precipitation that determe risky agricultural conditions and insufficient yields of agricultural crops (Pichura et al 2021). One of the main indicators of global warming is the average annual air temperature and rising temperatures during the cold season, as well as a decrease in the duration of the winter period by almost a month (McNutt and Ramakrishnan, 2020).…”