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Non-Technical SummaryWe provide empirical evidence that financing decisions do depend on expectations about future profitability. We find that, after allowing for asset growth and mean reversion in profitability, debt financing has strong predictive power for future changes in profitability as measured by the Return on Assets. While asset growth and the total amount of external financing tend to be associated with higher future profitability, increased reliance on debt financing is associated with a lower future return on assets. Since the amount of debt financing is a managerial choice variable, this implies that managers have information about the change in future profitability at the time of the financing and choose to issue more debt when future earnings prospects are relatively poor. This behavior which we term `leaning against the wind', appears to be inconsistent with the traditional static tax and bankruptcy model which would predict a decline in debt capacity and a corresponding decline in debt financing in these circumstances. The relation between debt financing and future changes in the Return on Equity is much weaker but in the same direction.We consider three possible explanations for leaning against the wind: market timing, precautionary financing combined with pecking order financing, and 'making the numbers'.The market timing (MT) hypothesis is motivated by the findings on market timing of Baker and Wurgler (2002) who argue that current capital structures are the result of past efforts to time the market, and DeAngelo, DeAngelo, and Stulz (2010) who describe market timing as 'the most prominent theoretical explanation for SEOs'. The market timing hypothesis predicts that managers will tend to rely more heavily on equity financing when they perceive that their stock is overpriced, and that as a result heavy reliance on debt financing will be associated with underpricing and positive future risk-adjusted stock returns. The market timing hypothesis has no particular implications for the relation between current debt financing and future profitability unless changes in future profitability are anticipated by managers but not by the market.We find that, contrary to the prediction of the MT hypothesis, stocks of firms that rely more heavily on debt to finance their asset expansion have lower future risk adjusted returns which implies that their stock is more over-valued. Thus, not only does the MT hypothe...