Avaliação da intensidade de emissões de CO2 setoriais e na estrutura de exportações: um modelo interregional de insumo-produto São Paulo/restante do Brasil

Abstract

resumoEste trabalho quantifica as emissões de CO 2 decorrentes do consumo de combustíveis energéticos, considerando um modelo de insumo-produto inter-regional híbrido para São Paulo e o restante do Brasil, utilizando a matriz de 1996. É calculada a intensidade de emissões de dióxido de carbono para 15 setores, identificando a parcela de emissões totais devida à demanda final e ao consumo intermediário. Além disso, foram calculados os setores-chave nas emissões por meio do cálculo das elasticidades, identificando os setores de Agropecuária, Siderurgia, Alimentos e Bebidas, Outros Setores e Transportes nas duas regiões analisadas. Também foi verificada a quantidade de CO 2 incorporada nas exportações, mostrando que a pauta de exportações brasileira é, em grande parte, intensiva em poluição.Palavras-chave: emissões de CO 2 , modelo híbrido, insumo-produto, setores-chave, exportações. ABstrACtThis paper quantifies CO 2 emissions resulting from the consumption of energy fuels, assuming a hybrid interregional input-output analysis for the regions of Sao Paulo and rest of Brazil, using the matrix of 1996. We calculated the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions to 15 sectors, identifying the portion of total emissions due to the final demand and consumption intermediated. Moreover, the key-sector's emissions were calculated by elasticities, identifying the sectors of Agriculture, Steel, Food and Beverages, Other Sectors and Transport in the two regions analyzed. Finally, was also analyzed the amount of CO 2 incorporated in exports, noting that the agenda of Brazilian exports is largely pollution intensive.

Brazilian regions in the global value chain: trade and the environment

“…Espírito Santo was a source of net emission transfers amounting to 7,107 thousand tons of CO 2 . In contrast to our results,Carvalho and Perobelli (2009), applying a single-region IO model, Minas Gerais was a net exporter of CO2 emissions to China in 2005 (in our results,…”

“…Minas Gerais received a net emission transfer of 1,401 thousand tons). We consider this contrasting result reflects a) the increased participation of China in international trade in 2008 and b) methodological differences (the single-region model of Carvalho and Perobelli (2009) does not account for indirect exports and imports; it attributes the lower Minas Gerais' CO 2 coefficients to Chinese industries).…”

“…Moreover, given the increasing interconnectedness of domestic and global production processes, CO 2 emissions embodied in trade in the context of GVCs are significant even if the focus is on domestic regions (PEI et al, 2015). For Brazil, studies that analyze sectoral GHG emissions at the subnational level have been developed by applying either single-region (e.g., CARVALHO et al, 2013) or interregional IO models (e.g., IMORI et al, 2015;CASTELANI, 2014;CARVALHO;PEROBELLI, 2009;HILGEMBERG;GUILHOTO, 2006). A frequent concern of these studies, the effect of emissions exports, was addressed by impact analysis of exogenous variations in the final demand vectors.…”

APLICAÇÃO DA METODOLOGIA DE BOX & JENKINS PARA ANÁLISE DAS EMISSÕES DE DIÓXIDO DE CARBONO NO BRASIL

“…No entanto, em excesso, as emissões de gases do efeito estufa têm ocasionado a elevação da temperatura dos oceanos e do ar, com riscos eminentes de uma mudança climática (ABREU et al, 2014). Isso se deve ao fato de que o acúmulo dos GEE na atmosfera retém a radiação solar nas proximidades da superfície terrestre, desencadeando o chamado aquecimento global (CARVALHO;PEROBELLI, 2009).…”

Energy–Economy–Environment Interactions: A Comparative Analysis of Lisbon and Sao Paulo Metropolitan Areas

“…For the case of Brazil, previous studies that analyse sectoral energy requirements and/or GHG emissions at the subnational level have been developed by applying either single-region (e.g.,Carvalho et al, 2013) or interregional IO models (e.g.,Hilgemberg and Guilhoto, 2006;Carvalho and Perobelli, 2009;Imori et al, 2018). For Portugal, environmental extended IO models have been developed and applied almost exclusively at the national level(Cruz and Barata, 2011;Ferreira et al, 2014) Ferreira et al (2018),.…”