Revisitando a função de reação fiscal no Brasil pós-Real: uma abordagem de mudanças de regime

Abstract

Resumo

A Time-Varying Fiscal Reaction Function for Brazil

“…This is to say that, given the value of GDP, a debt increase of 1% of GDP increases the primary surplus in 0.0527% to 0.0624% of GDP. These are different from the values estimated by Mendonça et al (2009), De Mello (2008) and Luporini (2015), but these authors considered different samples, none of them contemplating the period after 2012.…”

“…Among the works on fiscal reaction, besides Bohn (1998), we can highlight Canzoneri (2001), Fincke and Greiner (2011), and, for the Brazilian case, Lima and Simonassi (2005), Mendonça et al (2009), Cavalcanti and Silva (2010), De Mello (2008) and Luporini (2015). 24 .…”

“…For example, Uctum, Thurston and Uctum (2006) analyze the implications of structural breaks for the estimation of fiscal reaction functions for some countries in Asia and Latin America (but not for Brazil), and Greiner and Kauermann (2007) apply semi-parametric methods for estimating models with time-varying coefficients for some OECD countries. For the Brazilian case, Mendonça et al (2009) apply a Markovian transition model to identify regime changes, Simonassi (2013) uses a fiscal reaction function with structural breaks, and Luporini (2015) estimates OLS regressions using moving windows.…”

Sustainability of Brazilian fiscal policy, once again: corrective policy response over time

“…There is indication of a change in the fiscal regime after 2000. These results are in line with those obtained by de Mello (2005) and by Mendonça, Santos and Sachsida (2009). More recently, using dummy variables in the analysis of fiscal reaction functions for Brazil, Simonassi (2013) 2.0 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 As previously discussed, stabilizing the debt-income ratio requires that the fiscal reaction parameter overcome the positive difference between the real rate of return paid on government securities and the economy´s growth rate.…”

“…A fiscal reaction function checks whether the government´s behavior has been sufficiently "responsive" to increments in the debt. Luporini (2002), De Mello (2005), Lima and Simonassi (2005), and more recently, Mendonça , Santos and Sachsida (2009) and Simonassi (2013) have estimated fiscal reaction functions for Brazil. Mendonça, Santos and Sachsida, used a Markov switching model over the period [1995][1996][1997][1998][1999][2000][2001][2002][2003][2004][2005][2006][2007] and found that Brazilian fiscal policy was more responsive to accumulating debt prior to the year 2000.…”