Purpose. To provide quantification of industry-specific structural shifts in the economy of Ukraine in the medium term perspective as a result of the structural policies application. Methodology. The methodological basis of the study is economic and mathematical modelling using the computable general equilibrium model GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project). Methods of analysis and synthesis were used in systematization and generalization of modelling results. The study on the theoretical basis of the GTAP model was carried out using the system method. Findings. The influence of structural policy instruments of the state on the dynamics of economic development in Ukraine is analyzed using the applied general equilibrium model GTAP. The essence and peculiarities of functioning of computable general equilibrium models, scope of their application in the analysis of structural changes in the economy are revealed. Using the GTAP model, the macroeconomic and sector-structural effects of the implementation of a number of structural policy measures in Ukraine have been quantified, including: exemption from payment of import duties on innovative equipment for processing industry manufacturers; preferential insurance and export crediting through an export credit agency; foreign trade facilitation; exemption of industrial park residents from payment of some direct taxes and fees (VAT, land tax, infrastructure levy). Positive economic effect of the proposed measures in structural and macroeconomic dimensions is argued. The impact of domestic economy restructuring on the dynamics of socio-economic development and general welfare of the population is estimated. Originality. A methodical approach to quantitative assessment of macroeconomic and sectoral-structural effects in the economy of Ukraine in the medium term using the applied model of general equilibrium GTAP is proposed. It is revealed that in the medium term, the aggregate effect of the structural policy measures is 11.4% of GDP growth, both due to intensification of business activity as a whole and due to more efficient use of resources and factors of production in the more productive sectors of the national economy. Among the measures considered, the greatest structural effect is observed as a result of the development of a network of real-life industrial parks in Ukraine. At the same time, structural tariff policy has the lowest potential for economic growth, although it remains an important element in improving manufacturers access to innovative equipment. Practical value. The results obtained can be used as a scientific substantiation of reforms in the industrial and foreign trade policy of Ukraine, aimed at ensuring qualitative structural shifts in the domestic economy.
Purpose. To determine globalization threats to the economic sovereignty of transition economy countries based on the analysis and systematization of patterns in dynamics of subindices of the KOF Globalization Index. Methodology. The methods of analysis and synthesis are used to systematize data on the structure and dynamics of the KOF Globalization Index. The method of correlation-regression analysis is used to assess statistical significance of the relation between the KOF Globalization subindices and economic development indicators of the countries of the statistical sample. Findings. It is shown that wide rating opportunities to assess the level of the countrys involvement in the world economic processes are created by index rating systems, one of which is the KOF Globalization Index. The dynamics and structure of de jure and de facto KOF Globalization Index are analyzed. A statistical sampling of the countries has been formed according to the criterion of the level of economic development; the value of the subindices of political and economic globalization of the KOF within the period of 20032017 has been analyzed. It is shown that for all groups of countries in the statistical sampling, the hypothesis of no direct statistically significant relationship between the value of the sub-index of economic globalization KOF and indicators of their economic development can be accepted. At the same time, a direct, mostly strong and statistically significant correlation between the values of the KOF subindex of political globalization and economic development indicators has been confirmed, which proves the importance of choosing a rational vector of foreign policy integration to provide economic development. Originality. Confirmation of the hypothesis of no direct correlation between the level of state involvement in the world economy and the level of its economic development shows the transformation of the idea of openness of the national economy as a prerequisite for its successful development. On the contrary, it allows considering globalization as a source of additional globalization risks for the economic sovereignty of countries with weak economies. Practical value. The obtained results create a basis to develop approaches for assessing vulnerability of the economic sovereignty of countries, which will take into account the determinants of economic globalization and specify the ways to minimize their destructive impact on national economic systems in neo-protectionism.
The authors proved that contrary to the global trends of development of science-intensive neo-industrial economy in Ukraine there is deindustrialization of the economy associated with outpacing growth of production and export of raw materials with a low level of technological processing and added value. The article examines the main factors of the deindustrialization of Ukraine’s economy, in particular, a significant degree of depreciation of fixed assets of industrial enterprises and production infrastructure, insufficient volume and unsatisfactory structure of capital investment to restore worn-out fixed capital, negative dynamics of foreign direct investment in the spheres of national economy such as innovations, etc. The authors also highlighted and analyzed the institutional factors influencing the industrial development of Ukraine, namely: the “presence” of the state in the economy, corruption and the shadow economy. The negative impact of the institutional environment on the innovative modernization of the national industrial sector was confirmed with the help of economic and mathematical modelling. The main directions of intensification of the state ‘s activity to overcome the institutional dysfunctions and traps formed during the period of market reform of the national economy are substantiated.
The article deals with the issues of formation and implementation of monetary policy. The peculiarities of implementation of monetary regime of inflation targeting in Ukraine and in other countries are defined.The growing role of central banks in ensuring price and financial stability and supporting economic growth is justified. The modern possibilities of realization of the main function in the activity of the National Bank of Ukraine are revealed. The importance of adhering to the interconnected goals of monetary policy is justified. It is determined that the controlled movement of financial flows and price stability can only be ensured at the same time as financial stability in the context of economic growth. The role and dynamics of the discount (key) rate in the implementation of the inflation targeting regime is revealed. In the presence of measures of state stimulation of business activity, the directions and intensity of movement of financial flows change.It is justified that central banks should have enhanced institutional and instrumental capabilities to prevent the risks of destabilization. This is ensured by cooperation with the government in the implementation of monetary policy. It is proved that in order to further stabilize the markets it is necessary to implement in monetary policy not monetary «solo», but monetary «mix» of the central bank-government.
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