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a b s t r a c tModel-based energy scenarios are a widely used tool for supporting economic and political decision makers. The results of energy modeling and the conclusions deduced therefrom, however, depend on the model input data derived from framework assumptions about future developments in the embedding society, which are deeply uncertain in the long term. The challenge to deal with this 'context uncertainty' in a systematic and comprehensive manner has only recently started to attract intensified attention in energy research; the search for appropriate methods is ongoing. This paper proposes a new concept for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios, which combines familiar environmental modeling approaches with new developments in qualitative scenario methodology, and demonstrates the possible application of the concept in model-based energy scenario construction.

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This paper presents a novel method to estimate the future biomass energy potential in countries with domestic markets unable to influence international markets. As a study case, the biomass energy potential in Colombia is estimated for the period 2010-2030.The prediction model is a scenario-based optimization algorithm that maximizes the yearly profit of locally producing and importing commodities in a country subject to certain constraints (domestic demand, limited area, etc.) as well as to demographic, macroeconomic and market data (e.g. domestic and international prices of commodities). The bioenergy potential associated to the production of commodities is calculated according to a methodology presented by the same authors. In order to provide a modeling framework consistent with other state-of-the-art projections, global scenarios for analysis are selected from the literature rather than formulated. Selected global scenarios highlight the influence of global biofuel use on agricultural prices, production and demand.Results predict a theoretical bioenergy potential in Colombia 56% to 69% larger in 2030 than in 2010 (1.31 -1.41 EJ). A sensitivity analysis shows that while a higher global biofuel use lead to a higher local bioenergy potential, its influence is less pronounced than that of agricultural yields, demand and specific energy of biomass resources.

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