Extreme events defined—A conceptual discussion applying a complex systems approach

Broska, Lisa Hanna; Poganietz, Witold‐Roger; Vögele, Stefan

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2019.102490

Cited by 43 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…There has been a long tradition of systems study in agriculture vis-à-vis disaster management (Monasterelo et al, 2016; Broska et al, 2020 ) because of their causal link to multiple systems (agriculture) or their simultaneous impact on systems interfaces (disaster). However, knowledge on the impact of health disaster on agriculture remains limited to specific contexts, such as - HIV-AIDS vis-a-vis farm labor availability ( Barnett et al, 1995 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-faceted impact and outcome of COVID-19 on smallholder agricultural systems: Integrating qualitative research and fuzzy cognitive mapping to explore resilient strategies

Goswami

Roy

Dutta

et al. 2021

Agricultural Systems

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The shock of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has disrupted food systems worldwide. Such disruption, affecting multiple systems interfaces in smallholder agriculture, is unprecedented and needs to be understood from multi-stakeholder perspectives. The multiple loops of causality in the pathways of impact renders the system outcomes unpredictable. Understanding the nature of such unpredictable pathways is critical to identify present and future systems intervention strategies. Our study aims to explore the multiple pathways of present and future impact created by the pandemic and “Amphan” cyclonic storm on smallholder agricultural systems. Also, we anticipate the behaviour of the systems elements under different realistic scenarios of intervention. We explored the severity and multi-faceted impacts of the pandemic on vulnerable smallholder agricultural production systems through in-depth interactions with key players at the micro-level. It provided contextual information, and revealed critical insights to understand the cascading effect of the pandemic and the cyclone on farm households. We employed thematic analysis of in-depth interviews with multiple stakeholders in Sundarbans areas in eastern India, to identify the present and future systems outcomes caused by the pandemic, and later compounded by “Amphan”. The immediate adaptation strategies of the farmers were engaging family labors, exchanging labors with neighbouring farmers, borrowing money from relatives, accessing free food rations, replacing dead livestock, early harvesting, and reclamation of waterbodies. The thematic analysis identified several systems elements, such as harvesting, marketing, labor accessibility, among others, through which the impacts of the pandemic were expressed. Drawing on these outputs, we employed Mental Modeler , a Fuzzy-Logic Cognitive Mapping tool, to develop multi-stakeholder mental models for the smallholder agricultural systems of the region. Analysis of the mental models indicated the centrality of “Kharif” (monsoon) rice production, current farm income, and investment for the next crop cycle to determine the pathways and degree of the dual impact on farm households. Current household expenditure, livestock, and soil fertility were other central elements in the shared mental model. Scenario analysis with multiple stakeholders suggested enhanced market access and current household income, sustained investment in farming, rapid improvement in affected soil, irrigation water and livestock as the most effective strategies to enhance the resilience of farm families during and after the pandemic. This study may help in formulating short and long-term intervention strategies in the post-pandemic communities, and the methodological approach can be used elsewhere to understand perturbed socioecological systems to formulate anticipatory intervention strategies based on collective wisdom of stakeholders.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-faceted impact and outcome of COVID-19 on smallholder agricultural systems: Integrating qualitative research and fuzzy cognitive mapping to explore resilient strategies

Goswami

Roy

Dutta

et al. 2021

Agricultural Systems

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“…This is a class of events with both 'known unknowns', say about how a health care system and supply chains would function in a pandemic, and 'unknown unknowns', such as how complex interactions among government, at multiple levels, and business and the public might affect the spread of a virus and impinge on an economy. One definition is: 'An extreme event is a dynamic occurrence within a limited timeframe that impedes the normal functioning of a system or systems' (Broska et al, 2020).…”

Section: The Coronavirus Crisismentioning

confidence: 99%

Reflections: US Coronavirus Crisis Management–Learning From Failure January–April, 2020

Mirvis

2020

Journal of Change Management

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These reflections, drawing from news accounts, examine US coronavirus crisis management from January through April, 2020. Focused on the Trump administration's policies and handling of the pandemic, it looks at failings with regard to: (1) early warning signals, (2) pandemic preparation, (3) virus testing, (4) crisis coordination, (5) communication, and (6) systemic challenges. These failings are considered through the lenses of crisis prevention, change management, and high reliability organization. Recommendations are advanced on how to prepare for and respond to future crises and pandemics.

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“…Extreme events are characterized by extreme observed values or statistical measurements. It is noted that there are numerous definitions of extreme event in different disciplines, however, researchers have attempted to introduce a systems-based definition of extreme event [ 4 , 5 ]. Extreme events occur in a wide range of fields from nature, economics, society to engineering.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Chaos in fractional system with extreme events

Ouannas

Debbouche

Pham

et al. 2021

Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top.

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Understanding extreme events attracts scientists due to substantial impacts. In this work, we study the emergence of extreme events in a fractional system derived from a Liénard-type oscillator. The effect of fractional-order derivative on the extreme events has been investigated for both commensurate and incommensurate fractional orders. Especially, such a system displays multistability and coexistence of multiple extreme events.

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Extreme events defined—A conceptual discussion applying a complex systems approach

Cited by 43 publications

References 47 publications

Multi-faceted impact and outcome of COVID-19 on smallholder agricultural systems: Integrating qualitative research and fuzzy cognitive mapping to explore resilient strategies

Multi-faceted impact and outcome of COVID-19 on smallholder agricultural systems: Integrating qualitative research and fuzzy cognitive mapping to explore resilient strategies

Reflections: US Coronavirus Crisis Management–Learning From Failure January–April, 2020

Chaos in fractional system with extreme events

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