Methodology for biomass energy potential estimation: Projections of future potential in Colombia

Abstract

This paper presents a novel method to estimate the future biomass energy potential in countries with domestic markets unable to influence international markets. As a study case, the biomass energy potential in Colombia is estimated for the period 2010-2030.The prediction model is a scenario-based optimization algorithm that maximizes the yearly profit of locally producing and importing commodities in a country subject to certain constraints (domestic demand, limited area, etc.) as well as to demographic, macroeconomic and market data (e.g. domestic and international prices of commodities). The bioenergy potential associated to the production of commodities is calculated according to a methodology presented by the same authors. In order to provide a modeling framework consistent with other state-of-the-art projections, global scenarios for analysis are selected from the literature rather than formulated. Selected global scenarios highlight the influence of global biofuel use on agricultural prices, production and demand.Results predict a theoretical bioenergy potential in Colombia 56% to 69% larger in 2030 than in 2010 (1.31 -1.41 EJ). A sensitivity analysis shows that while a higher global biofuel use lead to a higher local bioenergy potential, its influence is less pronounced than that of agricultural yields, demand and specific energy of biomass resources.

Methodology for estimating biomass energy potential and its application to Colombia

“…Finally, results from existing studies are re-evaluated using the proposed calculation method and the published assumptions (see Annex 1 in Ref. [5]) and compared to present results. …”

“…In order to allow a meaningful comparison of results in further sections, a comparative summary of assumptions taken by different studies is presented in Annex 1 in Ref. [5].…”

“…4 Fresh fruit bunch (FFB). 5 Encuesta Nacional Agropecuaria 1997 [39]. 6 Also known as Empty fruit bunches (EFB).…”

“…As a preliminary estimation, EUD distributions are created using the limits shown by authors in Ref. [5]. The preliminary availability factor for manure from cattle is described by a EUD distribution using 11.7-23.5% as limits, while for manure from pork another EUD distribution uses 7-14.5% as limits.…”

“…It is therefore an extension of the methodology proposed by authors to estimate the current biomass energy potential at a country level in Ref. [5], and it also relates to a methodology published by authors to assess the future biomass energy potential in a country (see Ref.…”