ObjectivesWe assess the potential benefits of increased physical activity for the global economy for 23 countries and the rest of the world from 2020 to 2050. The main factors taken into account in the economic assessment are excess mortality and lower productivity.MethodsThis study links three methodologies. First, we estimate the association between physical inactivity and workplace productivity using multivariable regression models with proprietary data on 120 143 individuals in the UK and six Asian countries (Australia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore and Sri Lanka). Second, we analyse the association between physical activity and mortality risk through a meta-regression analysis with data from 74 prior studies with global coverage. Finally, the estimated effects are combined in a computable general equilibrium macroeconomic model to project the economic benefits of physical activity over time.ResultsDoing at least 150 min of moderate-intensity physical activity per week, as per lower limit of the range recommended by the 2020 WHO guidelines, would lead to an increase in global gross domestic product (GDP) of 0.15%–0.24% per year by 2050, worth up to US$314–446 billion per year and US$6.0–8.6 trillion cumulatively over the 30-year projection horizon (in 2019 prices). The results vary by country due to differences in baseline levels of physical activity and GDP per capita.ConclusionsIncreasing physical activity in the population would lead to reduction in working-age mortality and morbidity and an increase in productivity, particularly through lower presenteeism, leading to substantial economic gains for the global economy.
This report examines the potential economic benefits of physical activity. Specifically, it looks at the potential gains in economic output and healthcare expenditure savings under different physical activity improvement scenarios at the population level. This study contributes to the existing literature in three ways. First, we synthesise and evaluate, in a systematic manner, the existing empirical evidence on the association between physical activity and mortality risk, using a meta-analytical approach to adjust for study heterogeneity and potential publication bias in the literature. Second, using large-scale, international workplace survey data, we quantify the associations between physical activity and workplace performance, with a specific focus on levels of sickness absence and levels of presenteeism. Finally, we examine the macroeconomic effects of reduced premature mortality and reductions in sickness absence and presenteeism associated with making the population of a country more physically active. The report will be of interest to policymakers in the fields of public health and at the same time to a much broader spectrum of readers, including private sector agents, in particular in the health and life insurance domains. The Vitality Group, part of Discovery Ltd, commissioned RAND Europe to carry out this research project. RAND Europe had full editorial control and independence of the analyses performed and presented in this report. This work informs the public good and should not be taken as a commercial endorsement. RAND Europe is an independent, not-for-profit policy research organisation that aims to improve policy-and decision making in the public interest through research and analysis. This report has been peer-reviewed in accordance with RAND's quality assurance standards. For more information about RAND Europe or this document, please contact Marco Hafner
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Abstract.-We studied the conformation of a series of y-ethyl-L-glutamate oligopeptides by circular dichroism and 220 MHz nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. By use of the first technique we noted enhancement of the n -0 7*and splitting of the ir --7r* transitions commencing with the heptamer in trimethylphosphate and trifluoroethanol. With the second method we found changes in chemical shifts for the amide protons consistent with the onset of helicity at the heptamer in the solvents noted above. When DMSO-d6 is used as a solvent, no such chemical shift changes occur because the oligopeptides do not assume helical conformations.Far-ultraviolet circular dichroism1-3 and 220 MHz nuclear magnetic resonance4-7 have been applied to the conformational analysis of polypeptides and proteins. We wish to report a definitive application of these techniques to the problem of the critical size for helix formation in oligopeptides. These measurements provide a more direct assessment of conformation than is possible by studying far ultraviolet absorption and optical rotatory dispersion spectra.8-15The circular dichroism spectra for a series of carbobenzoxy-L-glutamate oligomers in trimethylphosphate are shown in Figure 1.16 Our results demonstrate the existence of a critical size for helix formation below which the circular dichroism spectrum is composed of broad weak bands at about 235 mjs, weak positive bands at about 218 ms and a relatively strong negative band below 200 mu. The low wave-length band is due to the 7r --7r* transition of the amide chromophore.We attribute the very weak band above 230 mji (for the dimer through hexamer) to the carbobenzoxy group in agreement with the findings of Weinryb and Steiner who studied carbobenzoxy dipeptides.Y' The weak positive band at about 218 mg most probably arises from an n -# 7r* transition of the amide group in non-helical conformations.Above the critical size for the onset of helicity the circular dichroism bands change dramatically (Fig. 1) and are substantially like spectra of a-helices.The first negative band at 222 m1A is therefore assigned to the n -7r* transition while the negative band near 205 m1A and the large positive band below 200 my result from the exciton splitting of the ir --7r* transition of the peptide groups in a helical array.A sharp increase in molar ellipticity occurs with the onset of helicity for the n 7r* transition in addition to the above noted spectral shifts (Fig. 1). A plot of molar ellipticity at 222 mjt versus number of residues in the peptide chain 444
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