Estimating the global economic benefits of physically active populations over 30 years (2020–2050)

Abstract

ObjectivesWe assess the potential benefits of increased physical activity for the global economy for 23 countries and the rest of the world from 2020 to 2050. The main factors taken into account in the economic assessment are excess mortality and lower productivity.MethodsThis study links three methodologies. First, we estimate the association between physical inactivity and workplace productivity using multivariable regression models with proprietary data on 120 143 individuals in the UK and six Asian countries (Australia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore and Sri Lanka). Second, we analyse the association between physical activity and mortality risk through a meta-regression analysis with data from 74 prior studies with global coverage. Finally, the estimated effects are combined in a computable general equilibrium macroeconomic model to project the economic benefits of physical activity over time.ResultsDoing at least 150 min of moderate-intensity physical activity per week, as per lower limit of the range recommended by the 2020 WHO guidelines, would lead to an increase in global gross domestic product (GDP) of 0.15%–0.24% per year by 2050, worth up to US$314–446 billion per year and US$6.0–8.6 trillion cumulatively over the 30-year projection horizon (in 2019 prices). The results vary by country due to differences in baseline levels of physical activity and GDP per capita.ConclusionsIncreasing physical activity in the population would lead to reduction in working-age mortality and morbidity and an increase in productivity, particularly through lower presenteeism, leading to substantial economic gains for the global economy.

Association between Objectively Determined Physical Activity Levels and Body Composition in 6–8-Year-Old Children from a Black South African Population: BC–IT Study

“…To achieve health benefits, it is recommended that children and adolescents aged 5–17 years participate in an average of 60 min or more moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) per day [ 12 ]. Although the benefits of PA have been well identified, physical inactivity remains a major public health problem [ 13 , 14 ]. The Healthy Active Kids South Africa (HAKSA) 2018 report indicated that 50% of children are not meeting the recommended average of 60 min of MVPA per day [ 15 ].…”

Cardiorespiratory Fitness in Occupational Groups—Trends over 20 Years and Future Forecasts

“…An increase in the minimum level of physical activity recommendations (150 min of MVPA/week) would theoretically result in a reduction in working-age mortality, morbidity, and an increase in productivity, mainly through lower presenteeism and sickness absence [49]. However, occupational physical activity constitutes in general of too low intensity to have any greater impact on CRF level.…”

A Critical Review on New Approaches for Chronic Disease Prevention in Brazil and Canada: From Wholistic Dietary Guidelines to Physical Activity Security

“…Following PA guidelines requires different investments that are not affordable for various individuals (47,95). Despite the direct expenditure of money required to participate in some activities, related for example to the purchase of clothes, allocating a certain number of minutes per day or week exclusively to engage in PA is an investment not compatible with the routine of many (63, [96][97][98]. It is not surprising that modifying one's routine to include PA was shown to be impractical due to different reasons, such as tiresome jobs, long commutes, holding more than one job and/or also studying, and competing housework chores and/or family responsibilities (47,99).…”