is a not-for-profit research organisation that helps to improve policy and decision making through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org www.randeurope.org i This study was conducted by RAND Europe. Funding was made possible by the independent research and development provisions of RAND's contracts for the operation of its U.S. Department of Defense federally funded research and development centers. RAND Europe, an affiliate of the RAND Corporation, is a not-for-profit organisation whose mission is to help improve policy and decision making through research and analysis. Over the last 30 years, we have provided objective research and analysis to serve the policy needs of governments, institutions, charities, foundations, universities and the private sector.
ObjectivesWe assess the potential benefits of increased physical activity for the global economy for 23 countries and the rest of the world from 2020 to 2050. The main factors taken into account in the economic assessment are excess mortality and lower productivity.MethodsThis study links three methodologies. First, we estimate the association between physical inactivity and workplace productivity using multivariable regression models with proprietary data on 120 143 individuals in the UK and six Asian countries (Australia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore and Sri Lanka). Second, we analyse the association between physical activity and mortality risk through a meta-regression analysis with data from 74 prior studies with global coverage. Finally, the estimated effects are combined in a computable general equilibrium macroeconomic model to project the economic benefits of physical activity over time.ResultsDoing at least 150 min of moderate-intensity physical activity per week, as per lower limit of the range recommended by the 2020 WHO guidelines, would lead to an increase in global gross domestic product (GDP) of 0.15%–0.24% per year by 2050, worth up to US$314–446 billion per year and US$6.0–8.6 trillion cumulatively over the 30-year projection horizon (in 2019 prices). The results vary by country due to differences in baseline levels of physical activity and GDP per capita.ConclusionsIncreasing physical activity in the population would lead to reduction in working-age mortality and morbidity and an increase in productivity, particularly through lower presenteeism, leading to substantial economic gains for the global economy.
This report examines the potential economic benefits of physical activity. Specifically, it looks at the potential gains in economic output and healthcare expenditure savings under different physical activity improvement scenarios at the population level. This study contributes to the existing literature in three ways. First, we synthesise and evaluate, in a systematic manner, the existing empirical evidence on the association between physical activity and mortality risk, using a meta-analytical approach to adjust for study heterogeneity and potential publication bias in the literature. Second, using large-scale, international workplace survey data, we quantify the associations between physical activity and workplace performance, with a specific focus on levels of sickness absence and levels of presenteeism. Finally, we examine the macroeconomic effects of reduced premature mortality and reductions in sickness absence and presenteeism associated with making the population of a country more physically active. The report will be of interest to policymakers in the fields of public health and at the same time to a much broader spectrum of readers, including private sector agents, in particular in the health and life insurance domains. The Vitality Group, part of Discovery Ltd, commissioned RAND Europe to carry out this research project. RAND Europe had full editorial control and independence of the analyses performed and presented in this report. This work informs the public good and should not be taken as a commercial endorsement. RAND Europe is an independent, not-for-profit policy research organisation that aims to improve policy-and decision making in the public interest through research and analysis. This report has been peer-reviewed in accordance with RAND's quality assurance standards. For more information about RAND Europe or this document, please contact Marco Hafner
Background. Malaria is an important health and economic burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Conventional economic evaluations typically consider only direct costs to the health care system and government budgets. This paper quantifies the potential impact of malaria vaccination on the wider economy, using Ghana as an example. Methods. We used a computable general equilibrium model of the Ghanaian economy to estimate the macroeconomic impact of malaria vaccination in children under the age of 5, with a vaccine efficacy of 50% against clinical malaria and 20% against malaria mortality. The model considered changes in demography and labor productivity, and projected gross domestic product (GDP) over a time frame of 30 years. Vaccine coverage ranging from 20% to 100% was compared with a baseline with no vaccination. Results. Malaria vaccination with 100% coverage was projected to increase the GDP of Ghana over 30 years by US$6.93 billion (in 2015 prices) above the baseline without vaccination, equivalent to an increase in annual GDP growth of 0.5%. Projected GDP per capita would increase in the first year due to immediate reductions in time lost from work by adults caring for children with malaria, then decrease for several years as reductions in child mortality increase the number of dependent children, then show a sustained increase after Year 11 due to long-term productivity improvements in adults resulting from fewer malaria episodes in childhood. Conclusion. Investing in improving childhood health by vaccinating against malaria could result in substantial long-term macroeconomic benefits when these children enter the workforce as adults. These macroeconomic benefits are not captured by conventional economic evaluations and constitute an important potential benefit of vaccination.
is a not-for-profit research organisation that helps to improve policy and decision making through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.
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