The purpose of this study is to forecast the import demand of table grapes of Thailand using monthly time series from January 2007 to April 2020. The ADF unit root test is used for stationarity checking, and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) is applied to forecast the import demand of table grapes. The results revealed that the integration of time series was in the first difference for non-seasonal and seasonal order. The best-fitted forecasting model was SARIMA(1,1,3)(2,1,0)12. The forecasted period for the next eight months showed the import demand of table grapes of Thailand that is slightly decreased by an average of 11.398 percent, with overall expected to decrease by an average of 15.218 percent in 2020.
The objectives of this study are to analyze: (1) the effects from the change of palm oil price in the world market to the prices of oil palm and palm oil in Thailand, and (2) the adjustment of oil palm and palm oil prices in Thailand to the change of the price of palm oil in the world market using monthly time series from January 2008 to September 2019. The statistics consist of the stationary test using the ADF unit root, the long-run equilibrium test using the cointegration, and the short-run adjustment to the equilibrium using the error correction model, respectively. The empirical findings show that farm-gate price is the most affected by the change of palm oil price in the world market, followed by wholesale, export, and retail prices, respectively. In line with the adjustment of the prices of oil palm and palm oil in Thailand to the change in the world palm oil price, it is found that farm-gate price has adjusted in the short-term to return the equilibrium with the highest speed at 27.883%, followed by wholesale price 22.710%, exporting price 18.792%, and retail price 15.658%, respectively.
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