Forecasting Production and Export of Thailand’s Durian Fruit: An Empirical Study using the Box–Jenkins Approach

Rueangrit, Paisan; Jatuporn, Chalermpon; Suvanvihok, Vasu; Wanaset, Apinya

doi:10.18488/journal.73.2020.84.430.437

Cited by 8 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…For example, Co and Boosarawongse [8] estimated the models for forecasting the exports of different rice types in Thailand, and the MAPE statistic was found to be between 12.1-26.2%. In addition, Rueangrit et al [22] found accurate statistics to forecast Thailand's durian exports using correlation coefficients in the range of 78.095-88.654%.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact Assessment of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Shrimp Exports in Thailand: An Empirical Study Using Time Series Analysis

Jatuporn

2022

Sustainability

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This study aims to assess the impact of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on Thailand’s shrimp exports in 2020 by applying the Box-Jenkins forecasting technique. A monthly time series from January 2011 to December 2019, comprising 108 months in total, which is the period before the COVID-19 pandemic, was used to forecast Thailand’s shrimp exports of frozen and flavored shrimp from January to December 2020. Subsequently, the impact assessment was calculated by comparing the shrimp export values for the case with and without the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The empirical results reveal that the most suitable models for the estimate are (1) SARIMA(4,1,0)(0,1,1)12 for the export volume of frozen shrimp, (2) SARIMA(1,1,0)(0,1,1)12 for the export price of frozen shrimp, (3) SARIMA(2,2,3)(0,1,0)12 for the export volume of flavored shrimp, and (4) SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,1)12 for the export price of flavored shrimp. The impact assessment of the COVID-19 pandemic on shrimp exports in Thailand indicates that the COVID-19 pandemic has positively affected frozen shrimp export at an impact valuation of 1325 million baht and flavored shrimp export at an impact valuation of 1632 million baht. The reason for this is due to the demand for shrimp exports from Thailand to replace the sharply reduced shrimp supply in the world market.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact Assessment of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Shrimp Exports in Thailand: An Empirical Study Using Time Series Analysis

Jatuporn

2022

Sustainability

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“…The econometrics applied in this study include the Box-Jenkins technique (Box et al, 1994), or the seasonal autoregressive moving average (SARIMA). The forecasting method can be divided into five steps as follows (Jatuporn et al, 2020;Rueangrit et al, 2020;Cumroon et al, 2021;Ratsaminet et al, 2021).…”

Section: Econometricsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the Import Demand for Chemical Fertilizer in Thailand

Pisuttinusart,

Jatuporn,

Suvanvihok

et al. 2022

EUrASEANs

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This study aims to forecast the import demand for chemical fertilizer in Thailand, namely, nitrogen fertilizer, potassium fertilizer, and compound fertilizer. Secondary time series is employed, covering the period from January 2008 to December 2021, or 168 months. The forecasting technique used for the study is the seasonal autoregressive moving average (SARIMA) or the Box-Jenkins method.The empirical results show that the appropriate models for forecasting the import demand of nitrogen fertilizer, potassium fertilizer, and compound fertilizer based on the lowest value of the Akaike criterion and Schwarz criterion are SARIMA(0,0,0)(0,1,1)12, SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,1,1)12, and SARIMA(1,0,0)(2,1,0)12, respectively. The forecasts for the next 12 months (January to December 2022) reveal that the total import demand compared to the previous year for nitrogen fertilizer increased by 5.12%, potassium fertilizer decreased by 8.74%, and compound fertilizer increased by 4.74%.

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“…These are the reasons for the study of factors that affect durian production in the eastern region of Thailand to provide farmers with the fundamental knowledge to improve durian production and respond to the domestic and international market demands effectively. Over the past ten years, the demand for durian has been steadily increased following the reports of the Office of Agricultural Economics (2020c, 2020b) and the findings of Rueangrit et al (2020). As a result, the durian price rose in line with the supply and demand mechanism; therefore, it was an incentive for domestic farmers to start growing durian in various areas across the country.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors affecting the durian production of farmers in the eastern region of Thailand

et al. 2021

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Thailand is the largest durian producer and exporter in the world market. In addition, durian is the most important fruit crop in Thailand because it can generate a higher income from exports with a value of approximately 45,349-million-baht, equivalent to an export quantity of 653,564 tons in 2019. The objective is to analyze the factors affecting the durian production of farmers in the eastern region of Thailand, namely Chanthaburi, Rayong, and Trad Provinces. The sample of 395 durian farmers underwent observation using simple random sampling via the questionnaire approach. The statistics consisted of mean, percentage, and multiple regression. The findings revealed that the positive factors affecting the durian production of farmers in the eastern region of Thailand are the experience of the farmers in growing durian, the size of the workforce, the planted area of durian, the number of durian trees, and the number of durian trees per planted area, while the negative factors affecting the durian production of farmers in the eastern region of Thailand are the age of the farmers and the cultivation of organic durian. The results will be beneficial to farmers, government, and related stakeholders, who can further apply these findings to enhance the efficiency of durian production to be the quality durian for domestic and foreign consumers

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Forecasting Production and Export of Thailand’s Durian Fruit: An Empirical Study using the Box–Jenkins Approach

Cited by 8 publications

References 8 publications

Impact Assessment of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Shrimp Exports in Thailand: An Empirical Study Using Time Series Analysis

Impact Assessment of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Shrimp Exports in Thailand: An Empirical Study Using Time Series Analysis

Forecasting the Import Demand for Chemical Fertilizer in Thailand

Factors affecting the durian production of farmers in the eastern region of Thailand

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