The main objective of this study is to measure the persistence of inflation level in Jakarta. In addition, this study intends to find out the source of inflation persistence and its implication to regional inflation control. The analysis of the regional inflation behavior developed in this paper is explored to commodities level. The empirical result indicates that the level of inflation persistence in Jakarta is relatively high, stemmed from high level of inflation persistance for most of commodities that construct inflation. Using the estimation results of the hybrid NKPC model, it shows that high inflation persistence in Jakarta mainly caused by inflation expectation, which is a combination of forward and backward looking. In this regards, it requires efforts gradually transform the behavior of inflation expectation to be more forward looking. Keywords: inflation peristence, expectation, NKPC.JEL Classification:E31, R10
Banking credit has an important role in financing the national economy and as engine of economic growth. The high growth of credit is a commonly normal phenomenon as a positive consequence from the increase of financial deepening in economy. On the other hand, one must consider the implication of credit growth towards the financial stabilization and macro condition. Therefore, the policy authority should be able to identify the credit growth that is considered to be risky for the financial system and the macro stability. This research measures the credit growth without negative impact towards the economy and the banking condition. The testing uses Markov Switching (MS) Univariate approach and MS Vector Error Correction Model. The result with MS Univariate approach shows that the upper limit of the real credit growth in moderate regime is about 17.39 percent, while using the MS VECM approach is about 22.15 percent.Keywords: bank, credit, risk, markov switching error correction modelJEL classification: G21, E51, C23,C24
Banking credit has an important role in financing the national economy and as engine of economic growth. The high growth of credit is a commonly normal phenomenon as a positive consequence from the increase of financial deepening in economy. On the other hand, one must consider the implication of credit growth towards the financial stabilization and macro condition. Therefore, the policy authority should be able to identify the credit growth that is considered to be risky for the financial system and the macro stability. This research measures the credit growth without negative impact towards the economy and the banking condition. The testing uses Markov Switching (MS) Univariate approach and MS Vector Error Correction Model. The result with MS Univariate approach shows that the upper limit of the real credit growth in moderate regime is about 17.39 percent, while using the MS VECM approach is about 22.15 percent. Keywords: bank, credit, risk, markov switching error correction modelJEL classification: G21, E51, C23,C24
The main objective of this study is to measure the persistence of inflation level in akarta. In addition,this study intends to find out the source of inflation persistence and its implication to regional inflation control. The analysis of the regional inflation behavior developed in this paper is explored to commodities level. The empirical result indicates that the level of inflation persistence in Jakarta is relatively high, stemmed from high level of inflation persistence for most of commodities that construct inflation. Using the estimation results of the hybrid NKPC model, it shows that high inflation persistence in Jakarta mainly caused by inflation expectation, which is a combination of forward and backward looking. In this regards, it requires efforts gradually transform the behavior of inflation expectation to be more forward looking.JEL Classification: E31, R10Keywords: inflation peristence, expectation, NKPC
The aim of this study is to determine if capital flows can account for the international effects on domestic monetary policy, using an augmented Taylor rule model. In addition to the standard determinants of nominal interest rates, we include capital flow measures to show how central banks consider this important factor when deciding on the most appropriate monetary policy. Using a panel of inflation targeting economies and the dynamic panel approach, this study finds that capital inflows and outflows are an important determinant of nominal interest rates.
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