Pertumbuhan Kredit Optimal

Abstract

Banking credit has an important role in financing the national economy and as engine of economic growth. The high growth of credit is a commonly normal phenomenon as a positive consequence from the increase of financial deepening in economy. On the other hand, one must consider the implication of credit growth towards the financial stabilization and macro condition. Therefore, the policy authority should be able to identify the credit growth that is considered to be risky for the financial system and the macro stability. This research measures the credit growth without negative impact towards the economy and the banking condition. The testing uses Markov Switching (MS) Univariate approach and MS Vector Error Correction Model. The result with MS Univariate approach shows that the upper limit of the real credit growth in moderate regime is about 17.39 percent, while using the MS VECM approach is about 22.15 percent.Keywords: bank, credit, risk, markov switching error correction modelJEL classification: G21, E51, C23,C24

The Effect of Interest Rates on the Financial Cycle in Indonesia

“…On the other hand, long-term interest rate movements have a negative effect on the financial cycle, because market reactions will have saturation in the economy, thus giving an influence on financial performance (banking) in managing their finances (NPL increases). Where the decline in the financial performance of the banking sector for the long term will affect the movement of the financial cycle marked by financial movements towards the direction of financial recession or bust point, and if the financial cycle moves for 10 years 13 , it will put pressure on the financial crisis 14 , overall movement can be seen in the picture below. There is a strong interaction between interest rates and the financial cycle, this interaction is characterized by wave density and the amount of pressure that occurs.…”

Bagaimana Risiko Kredit Pada Masa Awal Pandemic?

“…Pertumbuhan kredit adalah penyaluran dana yang dilakukan oleh perbankan dilakukan dengan selektif, sehingga jika terjadinya kredit bermasalah dapat diminimalisir (Keeton, 1999). tingginya pertumbuhan kredit merupakan fenomena umum yang normal sebagai akibat dari peningkatan financial deepening yang terjadidalam perekonomian (Utari et al, 2012). Adapun hasil penelitian yang dilakukan oleh (Kevin and Tiffany, 2010 :102) menyatakan bahwa pertumbuhan total kredit relatif, secara moderat signifikan, berbeda dengan laporan yang tidak Rengga Madya Pranata, Nugraha, Ikaputera Waspada Vol 6 No 1 ISSN : 2541-6995 E ISSN : 2580-5517 signifikan hubungan antara ukuran lembaga perbankan dan tingkatnya NPL, Adapun penelitian lainnya, milik Berger de Young (1997) Ekanayake dan Azeez (2015) dan Ghosh (2015), terdapat indikasi positif antara pertumbuhan kredit terhadap NPL.…”

Pengaruh Makroekonomi Terhadap Non Performing Loan (Npl) Di Indonesia: Studi Non Performing Loan Perbankan

“…Fluktuasi dari kegiatan perekonomian (GDP riil) yang saling bergantian antara masa depresi dan masa kemakmuran. Menurut Utari, et al (2012) pada masa ekspansi ekonomi terjadi peningkatan permintaan agregat yang akan menyebabkan peningkatan pada pertumbuhan kredit perbankan dan tingkat leverage perekonomian. Pada umumnya peningkatan hal tersebut akan diiringi dengan meningkatnya harga aset, profitabilitas perusahaan serta ekspektasi konsumen.…”

“…Kerentanan tersebut pada akhirnya akan menimbulkan tekanan overheating. Peningkatan konsumsi dan impor yang di dorong oleh kredit perbankan akan meningkatkan defisit current account, apabila kondisi ini berlangsung terus menerus akan memicu berkurangnya aliran modal masuk sehingga dapat memengaruhi kondisi keuangan dan sektor perbankan (Utari, et al, 2012).…”