This study examines the impact of fiscal policy on output and inflation, along with a look at discretionary fiscal policy and how it impacts the volatility of output and inflation. Model Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was applied over quarterly data, covering the period 1990 to 2009. Empirical results showed that there is a cointegration relationship between government spending and taxes with respect to output in the long-run.Unlike government spending, in the long-term, taxation has a positive effect on economic growth. Short-term adjustment suggests that anincrease in government spending has a positive effect on output, while a tax increase has a negative effect. There is a greater influence of government spending on output in the short term compared to taxation policies. Therefore, government spending is more effective to stimulate economic growth especially in times of recession, compared to taxation policies. While the increase in government spending causes a decrease in inflation, tax increases lead to higher inflation. This study also indicates the absence of discretionary fiscal policy made by the government of Indonesia. Keywords : Inflation, output, fiscal policy, tax, discretionary, VECM.JEL Classification: E31, E62

Penelitian ini melihat dampak kebijakan fiskal terhadap output dan inflasi serta melihat apakah terdapat diskresi kebijakan fiskal dan bagaimana dampaknya terhadap volatilitas output dan inflasi. Model Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)diaplikasikan atas data triwulanan, mencakup periode 1990 - 2009. Hasil empiris menunjukkan bahwa terdapat hubungan kointegrasi antara pengeluaran pemerintah dan pajak terhadap output dalam jangka panjang. Dalam jangka panjang pengenaan pajak berdampak positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi sementara pengeluaran pemerintah tidak. Penyesuaian jangka pendek menunjukkan bahwa shock kenaikan pengeluaran pemerintah berdampak positif terhadap output sementara shock kenaikan pajak berdampak negatif.Lebih dominannya pengaruh pengeluaran pemerintah terhadap output dalam jangka pendek dibandingkan dengan pajak menunjukkan masih cukup efektifnya kebijakan ini untuk menstimulasi pertumbuhan ekonomi khususnya dalam masa resesi. Sementara itu kenaikan pengeluaran pemerintahmenyebabkan penurunan inflasi, sementara peningkatan pajak menyebabkan peningkatan inflasi. Studi ini juga menunjukkan tidak adanya diskresi kebijakan fiskal yang dilakukan oleh pemerintah.Keywords: Inflation, output, fiscal policy, tax, discretionary, VECM.JEL Classification: E31, E62

Banking credit has an important role in financing the national economy and as engine of economic growth. The high growth of credit is a commonly normal phenomenon as a positive consequence from the increase of financial deepening in economy. On the other hand, one must consider the implication of credit growth towards the financial stabilization and macro condition. Therefore, the policy authority should be able to identify the credit growth that is considered to be risky for the financial system and the macro stability. This research measures the credit growth without negative impact towards the economy and the banking condition. The testing uses Markov Switching (MS) Univariate approach and MS Vector Error Correction Model. The result with MS Univariate approach shows that the upper limit of the real credit growth in moderate regime is about 17.39 percent, while using the MS VECM approach is about 22.15 percent.Keywords: bank, credit, risk, markov switching error correction modelJEL classification: G21, E51, C23,C24

Banking credit has an important role in financing the national economy and as engine of economic growth. The high growth of credit is a commonly normal phenomenon as a positive consequence from the increase of financial deepening in economy. On the other hand, one must consider the implication of credit growth towards the financial stabilization and macro condition. Therefore, the policy authority should be able to identify the credit growth that is considered to be risky for the financial system and the macro stability. This research measures the credit growth without negative impact towards the economy and the banking condition. The testing uses Markov Switching (MS) Univariate approach and MS Vector Error Correction Model. The result with MS Univariate approach shows that the upper limit of the real credit growth in moderate regime is about 17.39 percent, while using the MS VECM approach is about 22.15 percent. Keywords: bank, credit, risk, markov switching error correction modelJEL classification: G21, E51, C23,C24

Sustainable economic growth has put Indonesia as a middle-income country (MIC) and currently, the level of per capita income has already exceeded US$3,000. The increase in income per capita is followed by the increasing number of middle-class population and the reduction in poverty. However, it has not been accompanied by declining inequality that reflects the quality of economic growth. According to Kuznets theory, an increase in inequality is a common problem in the process of economic growth. Inequality will further decline after the country