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We evaluated the impacts of climate change on the productivity and health of a forest in the mixed-conifer region in California. We adapted an industry-standard planning tool to forecast 30-years of growth for forest stands under a changing climate. Four projections of future climate (two global climate models and two emission forecasts) were examined for forests under three management regimes. Forest structural and tree demographic data from the Blodgett Forest Research Station in El Dorado County were used to fit our projections to realistic management regimes. Conifer tree growth declined under all climate scenarios and management regimes. The most extreme changes in climate decreased productivity, as measured by stem volume increment, in mature stands by 19% by 2100. More severe reductions in yield (25%) were observed for pine plantations. The reductions in growth under each scenario also resulted in moderate increases in susceptibility to non-catastrophic (i.e., non fire) causes of mortality in white fir (Abies concolor). For the worst case, median survival probability decreased from the baseline rate of 0.997 year −1 in 2002 to 0.982 year −1 by the end of the century.

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Three stands of second-growth redwood forest were clearcut, and the logging slash in two of the units was broadcast burned following logging. Three types of redwood seedlings (plug, plug-one, and 2-year bareroot) were planted following logging and burning. Seedling survival rates were high, and there were no significant differences between survival and growth of stock types after 9 years. The native redwood sprouts were substantially larger than the planted seedlings, in both height and diameter, which could affect future growth of some seedlings. The status and dimensions of seedlings and native regeneration were periodically checked. The burned units were fully occupied by a dense, tall growth of brush within a few years, and the brush became re-established after a successful initial herbicide treatment.

No abstract