Abstract Changing disturbance regimes and climate can overcome forest ecosystem resilience. Following high-severity fire, forest recovery may be compromised by lack of tree seed sources, warmer and drier postfire climate, or short-interval reburning. A potential outcome of the loss of resilience is the conversion of the prefire forest to a different forest type or nonforest vegetation. Conversion implies major, extensive, and enduring changes in dominant species, life forms, or functions, with impacts on ecosystem services. In the present article, we synthesize a growing body of evidence of fire-driven conversion and our understanding of its causes across western North America. We assess our capacity to predict conversion and highlight important uncertainties. Increasing forest vulnerability to changing fire activity and climate compels shifts in management approaches, and we propose key themes for applied research coproduced by scientists and managers to support decision-making in an era when the prefire forest may not return.

Agency incentives undermine policy effectiveness

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Before the advent of intensive forest management and fire suppression, western North American forests exhibited a naturally occurring resistance and resilience to wildfires and other disturbances. Resilience, which encompasses resistance, reflects the amount of disruption an ecosystem can withstand before its structure or organization qualitatively shift to a different basin of attraction. In fire-maintained forests, resilience to disturbance events arose primarily from vegetation pattern-disturbance process interactions at several levels of organization. Using evidence from 15 ecoregions, spanning forests from Canada to Mexico, we review the properties of forests that reinforced qualities of resilience and resistance. We show examples of multi-level landscape resilience, of feedbacks within and among levels, and how conditions have changed under climatic and management influences. We highlight geographic similarities and important differences in the structure and organization of historical landscapes, their forest types, and in the conditions that have changed resilience and resistance to abrupt or large-scale Hessburg et al. Resilience in North American Forests disruptions. We discuss the role of the regional climate in episodically or abruptly reorganizing plant and animal biogeography and forest resilience and resistance to disturbances. We give clear examples of these changes and suggest that managing for resilient forests is a construct that strongly depends on scale and human social values. It involves human communities actively working with the ecosystems they depend on, and the processes that shape them, to adapt landscapes, species, and human communities to climate change while maintaining core ecosystem processes and services. Finally, it compels us to embrace management approaches that incorporate ongoing disturbances and anticipated effects of climatic changes, and to support dynamically shifting patchworks of forest and non-forest. Doing so could make these shifting forest conditions and wildfire regimes less disruptive to individuals and society.

Abstract. Many managers today are tasked with restoring forests to mitigate the potential for uncharacteristically severe fire. One challenge to this mandate is the lack of large-scale reference information on forest structure prior to impacts from Euro-American settlement. We used a robust 1911 historical dataset that covers a large geographic extent (.10,000 ha) and has unbiased sampling locations to compare past and current forest conditions for ponderosa pine and mixed conifer forests in the southern Sierra Nevada. The 1911 dataset contained records from 18,052 trees in 378 sampled transects, totaling just over 300 ha in transect area. Forest structure was highly variable in 1911 and shrubs were found in 54% of transects. Total tree basal area ranged from 1 to 60 m 2 ha À1 and tree density from 2 to 170 ha À1 (based on trees .30 cm dbh). K-means cluster analysis divided transects into four groups: mixed conifer-high basal area (MC High BA), mixed conifer-average basal area (MC Ave BA), mixed conifer-average basal area-high shrubs (MC Ave BA Shrubs), and ponderosa pine (Pond Pine). The percentage of this 1911 landscape that experienced high severity fire was low and varied from 1-3% in mixed conifer forests and 4-6% in ponderosa pine forests. Comparing forest inventory data from 1911 to the present indicates that current forests have changed drastically, particularly in tree density, canopy cover, the density of large trees, dominance of white fir in mixed conifer forests, and the similarity of tree basal area in contemporary ponderosa pine and mixed conifer forests. Average forest canopy cover increased from 25-49% in mixed conifer forests, and from 12-49% in ponderosa pine forests from 1911 to the present; canopy cover in current forest types is similar but in 1911 mixed conifer forests had twice the canopy cover as ponderosa pine forests. Current forest restoration goals in the southern Sierra Nevada are often skewed toward the higher range of these historical values, which will limit the effectiveness of these treatments if the objective is to produce resilient forest ecosystems into the future.

In areas where fire regimes and forest structure have been dramatically altered, there is increasing concern that contemporary fires have the potential to set forests on a positive feedback trajectory with successive reburns, one in which extensive stand‐replacing fire could promote more stand‐replacing fire. Our study utilized an extensive set of field plots established following four fires that occurred between 2000 and 2010 in the northern Sierra Nevada, California, USA that were subsequently reburned in 2012. The information obtained from these field plots allowed for a unique set of analyses investigating the effect of vegetation, fuels, topography, fire weather, and forest management on reburn severity. We also examined the influence of initial fire severity and time since initial fire on influential predictors of reburn severity. Our results suggest that high‐ to moderate‐severity fire in the initial fires led to an increase in standing snags and shrub vegetation, which in combination with severe fire weather promoted high‐severity fire effects in the subsequent reburn. Although fire behavior is largely driven by weather, our study demonstrates that post‐fire vegetation composition and structure are also important drivers of reburn severity. In the face of changing climatic regimes and increases in extreme fire weather, these results may provide managers with options to create more fire‐ resilient ecosystems. In areas where frequent high‐severity fire is undesirable, management activities such as thinning, prescribed fire, or managed wildland fire can be used to moderate fire behavior not only prior to initial fires, but also before subsequent reburns.

Abstract. We re-sampled areas included in an unbiased 1911 timber inventory conducted by the U.S.Forest Service over a 4000 ha study area. Over half of the re-sampled area burned in relatively recent management-and lightning-ignited fires. This allowed for comparisons of both areas that have experienced recent fire and areas with no recent fire, to the same areas historically based on early forest inventories. Our results indicate substantially altered present forest conditions, relative to the 1911 data, and can largely be attributed to the disruption of the key ecosystem process for these forests, fire. For areas that burned recently there was a noticeable difference in forest structure based on fire severity. Current tree density and canopy cover in areas burned recently with moderate severity did not differ from 1911 estimates, while areas that burned recently with low severity or were unburned had higher tree density and canopy cover relative to the 1911 estimates. This emphasizes an important distinction with regard to using fire to restore forests, resting primarily on whether fires kill trees in the lower and intermediate canopy strata. Our results also demonstrate nearly a doubling of live tree carbon stocks in the present forest compared to the historical forest. The findings presented here can be used by managers and ecologists interested in restoring Sierra Nevada mixed conifer systems.