Climate change impacts on forest growth and tree mortality: a data-driven modeling study in the mixed-conifer forest of the Sierra Nevada, California

Abstract

We evaluated the impacts of climate change on the productivity and health of a forest in the mixed-conifer region in California. We adapted an industry-standard planning tool to forecast 30-years of growth for forest stands under a changing climate. Four projections of future climate (two global climate models and two emission forecasts) were examined for forests under three management regimes. Forest structural and tree demographic data from the Blodgett Forest Research Station in El Dorado County were used to fit our projections to realistic management regimes. Conifer tree growth declined under all climate scenarios and management regimes. The most extreme changes in climate decreased productivity, as measured by stem volume increment, in mature stands by 19% by 2100. More severe reductions in yield (25%) were observed for pine plantations. The reductions in growth under each scenario also resulted in moderate increases in susceptibility to non-catastrophic (i.e., non fire) causes of mortality in white fir (Abies concolor). For the worst case, median survival probability decreased from the baseline rate of 0.997 year −1 in 2002 to 0.982 year −1 by the end of the century.

A spatial and temporal drought risk assessment of three major tree species in Britain using probabilistic climate change projections

“…In contrast, previous studies mostly evaluated impacts only for one time period e.g. 2050-2099 (Williams et al 2010) or over three time periods (Battles et al 2007). With respect to the emissions scenarios, our results emphasise increased changes in the drought risk particularly after the 2050s in accordance with higher emissions scenario uncertainty (Meehl et al 2007;Murphy et al 2009).…”

“…1) similar to a study (Broadmeadow et al 2005) which incorporated additional limiting factors to tree growth and used previous non-probabilistic UK climate change projections (UKCIP2002). A study of drought impacts in the US showed a 25 % reduction in yield from pine plantations by 2100 (Battles et al 2007). With respect to time periods, we found a large yield class reduction of up to 89 % in the 2050s and even higher reductions up to 94 % by the 2080s.…”

Climate change, uncertainty, and consequent risks: opportunities for forest management adaptation in britain

“…In contrast, previous studies mostly evaluated impacts only for one time period e.g. 2050-2099 (Williams et al 2010) or over three time periods (Battles et al 2007). With respect to the emissions scenarios, our results emphasise increased changes in the drought risk particularly after the 2050s in accordance with higher emissions scenario uncertainty (Murphy et al 2009;Meehl et al 2007).…”

“…For oak, our results show a 13% reduction of the median stand yield class in the 2050s (Figure 3-1) similar to a study (Broadmeadow et al 2005) which incorporated additional limiting factors to tree growth and used previous UK climate change projections (UKCIP2002), but without probabilistic climate change data. A study of drought impacts in the US showed a 25% reduction in yield from pine plantations by 2100 (Battles et al 2007). With respect to time periods, we found a large yield class reduction of up to 89% in the 2050s and even higher reductions up to 94% by the 2080s.…”

Climate Change and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

“…Examples of these effects are shown for enhanced growth of Norway spruce (Picea abies) in forest productivity studies in Sweden and Finland [4]. However, negative effects have been observed on poor sites, decreasing growth [13] or increasing mortality of trees [14] especially under heat or drought stress [15], as a combined effect of temperature (increase) and precipitation (decrease).…”