Aboveground live carbon stock changes of California wildland ecosystems, 2001–2010

González, Patrick; Battles, John J.; Collins, Brandon M.; Robards, Timothy A.; Saah, David

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2015.03.040

Cited by 62 publications

(92 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…In some ways, these results align with the statewide spatial inventory analysis showing loss of aboveground carbon from 2001 to 2010 (Gonzalez et al. ). At the same time, the elicitation estimates reflect smaller carbon storage potential relative to three recent model‐based studies.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 84%

“…The elicitation results suggest a continued decrease in aboveground forest carbon stock, in many cases irrespective of management practices. In some ways, these results align with the statewide spatial inventory analysis showing loss of aboveground carbon from 2001 to 2010 (Gonzalez et al 2015). At the same time, the elicitation estimates reflect smaller carbon storage potential relative to three recent model-based studies.…”

Section: Comparison Of Expert-elicitation Carbon Stock Estimates Withsupporting

confidence: 80%

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Forest management in the Sierra Nevada provides limited carbon storage potential: an expert elicitation

et al. 2018

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Analysis of long‐term trends in forest carbon stocks is challenged by interactions among climate change, wildfire and other disturbances, forest management actions, and heterogeneous vegetation responses. For such circumstances where complex interactions make it difficult to encompass the full range of processes in any one mode of analysis, expert elicitation is a well‐developed method for documenting judgments about uncertainty, based on available evidence, to inform ongoing decision‐making. Applying this method for the Sierra Nevada, we evaluate subjective probabilistic estimates of trends in aboveground forest carbon for different management scenarios toward the goal of maximizing carbon stored, while also considering implications for wildfire risk. The analysis examines the effects of four treatments in isolation (thinning, timber harvesting, prescribed burning, managed wildfire), as well as a user‐defined management portfolio allocating resources across five management practices (thinning, harvesting, prescribed burning, firefighting, and restoration). The expert elicitation suggests that aboveground forest carbon stocks will decline 8%, from 126 to 116 tC/ha, between 2030 and 2100 (median estimate across experts) assuming conventional forest management practices are continued. Out of all surveyed practices, the custom user‐defined management portfolio results in the highest carbon stock of 129 tC/ha which is 11% higher than conventional practice in 2100 at the 50th percentile. The expert elicitation indicates less beneficial carbon sequestration outcomes than recent modeling studies. Suggesting co‐benefits across objectives, 75 experts collectively estimate a 61% likelihood that managing for carbon also reduces wildfire risk. By contrast, decreases in carbon stocks are anticipated for large magnitudes of climate change or substantial decreases in forest management investments.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 84%

Section: Comparison Of Expert-elicitation Carbon Stock Estimates Withsupporting

confidence: 80%

Forest management in the Sierra Nevada provides limited carbon storage potential: an expert elicitation

et al. 2018

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“…Climate influences forests directly through its differential effects on tree species and indirectly through disturbance. Climate-induced drought stress (Williams et al, 2012) and climate-enhanced large wildfire activity (Westerling et al, 2006;Westerling, 2016) are anticipated to cause changes in forest community composition and productivity, which are likely to affect carbon (C) dynamics Lenihan et al, 2008;Loudermilk et al, 2013;Gonzalez et al, 2015). However, there is often a disparity between changes in forest community composition at the landscape scale and the magnitude of environmental change (Jones et al, 2009;Bertrand et al, 2011;Zhu et al, 2012;Svenning & Sandel, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Response of Sierra Nevada forests to projected climate–wildfire interactions

Liang

Hurteau

Westerling

2016

Global Change Biology

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Climate influences forests directly and indirectly through disturbance. The interaction of climate change and increasing area burned has the potential to alter forest composition and community assembly. However, the overall forest response is likely to be influenced by species-specific responses to environmental change and the scale of change in overstory species cover. In this study, we sought to quantify how projected changes in climate and large wildfire size would alter forest communities and carbon (C) dynamics, irrespective of competition from nontree species and potential changes in other fire regimes, across the Sierra Nevada, USA. We used a species-specific, spatially explicit forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) to evaluate forest response to climate-wildfire interactions under historical (baseline) climate and climate projections from three climate models (GFDL, CCSM3, and CNRM) forced by a medium-high emission scenario (A2) in combination with corresponding climate-specific large wildfire projections. By late century, we found modest changes in the spatial distribution of dominant species by biomass relative to baseline, but extensive changes in recruitment distribution. Although forest recruitment declined across much of the Sierra, we found that projected climate and wildfire favored the recruitment of more drought-tolerant species over less drought-tolerant species relative to baseline, and this change was greatest at mid-elevations. We also found that projected climate and wildfire decreased tree species richness across a large proportion of the study area and transitioned more area to a C source, which reduced landscape-level C sequestration potential. Our study, although a conservative estimate, suggests that by late century, forest community distributions may not change as intact units as predicted by biome-based modeling, but are likely to trend toward simplified community composition as communities gradually disaggregate and the least tolerant species are no longer able to establish. The potential exists for substantial community composition change and forest simplification beyond this century.

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“…The drought in the Western USA from 2000 to 2004 strongly reduced the background carbon sink (Schwalm et al 2012). Aboveground live carbon stocks in California are believed to have declined from 2001 to 2010, mostly because of wildfire (Gonzalez et al 2015). In contrast, the implementation of the Northwest Forest Plan in the western parts of Oregon and Washington (Thomas et al 2006) has contributed to an increase in carbon stocks on public forestland (Gray and Whittier 2014;Turner et al 2011a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional carbon cycle responses to 25 years of variation in climate and disturbance in the US Pacific Northwest

et al. 2016

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Variation in climate, disturbance regime, and forest management strongly influence terrestrial carbon sources and sinks. Spatially distributed, process-based, carbon cycle simulation models provide a means to integrate information on these various influences to estimate carbon pools and flux over large domains. Here we apply the Biome-BGC model over the four-state Northwest US region for the interval from 1986 to 2010. Landsat data were used to characterize disturbances, and forest inventory data were used to parameterize the model. The overall disturbance rate on forest land across the region was 0.8 % year -1 , with 49 % as harvests, 28 % as fire, and 23 % as pest/pathogen. Net ecosystem production (NEP) for the 2006-2010 interval on forestland was predominantly positive (a carbon sink) throughout the region, with maximum values in the Coast Range, intermediate values in the Cascade Mountains, and relatively low values in the Inland Rocky Mountain ecoregions. Localized negative NEPs were mostly associated with recent disturbances. There was large interannual variation in regional NEP, with notably low values across the region in 2003, which was also the warmest year in the interval. The recent (2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010) net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) was positive for the region (14.4 TgC year -1 ). Despite a lower area-weighted mean NECB, public forestland contributed a larger proportion to the total NECB because of its larger area. Aggregated forest inventory data and inversion modeling are beginning to provide opportunities for evaluating model-simulated regional carbon stocks and fluxes.

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Aboveground live carbon stock changes of California wildland ecosystems, 2001–2010

Cited by 62 publications

References 39 publications

Forest management in the Sierra Nevada provides limited carbon storage potential: an expert elicitation

Forest management in the Sierra Nevada provides limited carbon storage potential: an expert elicitation

Response of Sierra Nevada forests to projected climate–wildfire interactions

Regional carbon cycle responses to 25 years of variation in climate and disturbance in the US Pacific Northwest

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