a b s t r a c tSince soil erosion is driven by overland flow, it is fair to expect heterogeneity in erosion and deposition in both space and time. In this study, we develop and evaluate an open-source, spatially-explicit, sediment erosion, deposition and transport module for the distributed hydrological model, GEOtop. The model was applied in Dripsey catchment in Ireland, where it captured the total discharge volume and suspended sediment yield (SSY) with a relative bias of À1.2% and À22.4%, respectively. Simulation results suggest that daily SSY per unit rainfall amount was larger when the top soil was near saturation. Simulated erosion and deposition areas, which varied markedly between events, were also found to be directly influenced by spatial patterns of soil saturation. The distinct influence of soil saturation on erosion, deposition and SSY underscores the role of coupled surface-subsurface hydrologic interactions and a need to represent them in models for capturing fine resolution sediment dynamics.

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A warming climate increases thermal inputs to lakes with potential implications for water quality and aquatic ecosystems. In a previous study, we used a dynamic water column temperature and mixing simulation model to simulate chronic (7-day average) maximum temperatures under a range of potential future climate projections at selected sites representative of different U.S. regions. Here, to extend results to lakes where dynamic models have not been developed, we apply a novel machine learning approach that uses Gaussian Process regression to describe the model response surface as a function of simplified lake characteristics (depth, surface area, water clarity) and climate forcing (winter and summer air temperatures and potential evapotranspiration). We use this approach to extrapolate predictions from the simulation model to the statistical sample of U.S. lakes in the National Lakes Assessment (NLA) database. Results provide a national-scale scoping assessment of the potential thermal risk to lake water quality and ecosystems across the U.S. We suggest a small fraction of lakes will experience less risk of summer thermal stress events due to changes in stratification and mixing dynamics, but most will experience increases. The percentage of lakes in the NLA with simulated 7-day average maximum water temperatures in excess of 30°C is projected to increase from less than 2% to approximately 22% by the end of the 21st century, which could significantly reduce the number of lakes that can support cold water fisheries. Site-specific analysis of the full range of factors that influence thermal profiles in individual lakes is needed to develop appropriate adaptation strategies.

Over the last century, afforestation in Ireland has increased from 1% of the land area to 10%, with most plantations on upland drained blanket peatlands. This land use change is considered to have altered the hydrological response and water balance of upland catchments with implications for water resources. Because of the difficulty of observing these long-term changes in the field, the aim of this study was to utilize a hydrological model to simulate the rainfall runoff processes of an existing pristine blanket peatland and then to simulate the hydrology of the peatland if it were drained and afforested. The hydrological rainfall runoff model (GEOtop) was calibrated and validated for an existing small (76 ha) pristine blanket peatland in the southwest of Ireland for the 2-year period, 2007-2008. The current hydrological response of the pristine blanket peatland catchment with regard to streamflow and water table (WT) levels was captured well in the simulations. Two land use change scenarios of afforestation were also examined, (A) a young 10-year-old and (B) a semi-mature 15-year-old Sitka Spruce forest. Scenario A produced similar streamflow dynamics to the pristine peatland, whereas total annual streamflow from Scenario B was 20% lower. For Scenarios A and B, on an annual average basis, the WT was drawn down by 16 and 20 cm below that observed in the pristine peatland, respectively. The maximum WT draw down in Scenario B was 61 cm and occurred in the summer months, resulting in a significant decrease in summer streamflow. Occasionally in the winter (following rainfall), the WT for Scenario B was just 2 cm lower than the pristine peatland, which when coupled with the drainage networks associated with afforestation led to higher peak streamflows.

Ridge–furrow planting is often applied in semi-arid regions to reduce the drought risk on crop yield under rain-fed conditions. Sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) is widely planted in northern China and how to reduce the drought risk on sunflower production remains a significant issue. A three-year field experiment with seven treatments (a flat plot without mulching, three plastic film-mulching treatments and three non-film-mulching treatments with different ridge–furrow ratios (1.0 m:1.0 m, 1.0 m:0.5 m and 0.5 m:1.0 m)) was conducted to study the effects of the ridge–furrow rainwater harvesting system on the rain-fed sunflower. The results showed that the sunflowers in the film-mulched treatment with the larger ridge–furrow ratio (1.0 m:0.5 m) (M1R2) had greater growth advantage under drought conditions. In the dry year, M1R2 improved the yield and water use efficiency by 11.9%–107.5% and 13.8%–120.6%, respectively, and reduced the blight grain rate by 21.5%–32.5% with less evapotranspiration (ET) compared to other treatments. Based on the historical climatological data, the guarantee rate of sunflower water requirement for M1R2 was about 75%, while the guarantee rates for the other two film-mulched treatments were only about 40% and 50%. Based on the effects of drought resilience and the characteristics of precipitation, M1R2 is recommended to be the relatively optimal treatment for sunflower production in regions with similar climatic conditions to Wuchuan County in northern China.