Efficient statistical approach to develop intensity-duration-frequency curves for precipitation and runoff under future climate

Butcher, Jonathan B.; Zi, Tan; Pickard, Brian; Job, Scott; Johnson, Thomas E.; Groza, Bryan A.

doi:10.1007/s10584-021-02963-y

Cited by 21 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…(2019), and the intensification of atmospheric rivers in the West coast as suggested by Shields & Kiehl (2016). The changes in the 100‐year ARI precipitation were also larger than lower return periods (e.g., 10‐ and 25‐year), agreeing with previous studies that also estimated future changes over multiple ARIs (Butcher et al., 2021; Lopez‐Cantu et al., 2020). The results suggest an acceleration of increases in extreme precipitation magnitudes toward the end of the 21st century.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…In the SW, the highest changes are located near the Utah and Colorado mountains, suggesting the existence of a relationship between the precipitation patterns over orography with the aerosols as described by Choudhury et al (2019), and the intensification of atmospheric rivers in the West coast as suggested by Shields & Kiehl (2016). The changes in the 100-year ARI precipitation were also larger than lower return periods (e.g., 10-and 25-year), agreeing with previous studies that also estimated future changes over multiple ARIs (Butcher et al, 2021;Lopez-Cantu et al, 2020). The results suggest an acceleration of increases in extreme precipitation magnitudes toward the end of the 21st century.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

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Potential Impacts of Future Extreme Precipitation Changes on Flood Engineering Design Across the Contiguous United States

Coelho

Ferreira

Johnston

et al. 2022

Water Resources Research

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The intensification of extreme precipitation in a warming climate is expected to increase flood risk. In order to support flood resilience efforts, it is important to anticipate and quantify potential changes in design standards under future climate conditions. This study assessed how extreme precipitation is expected to change over the 21st century in relation to current National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 design standards over the contiguous United States (CONUS). We used the Community Earth System Model Version 2 large ensemble (CESM2‐LE) simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and incorporated future changes into flood engineering design standard with a spatially distributed quantile delta mapping method. Relative changes in extreme daily precipitation were computed for multiple average recurrence intervals (ARIs) up to 100‐year and different planning horizons (2020, 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100). The results indicated an intensification of extreme precipitation by approximately 10%–40% in northern regions and 20%–80% in southern regions by 2100. The current 100‐year ARI with 24‐hr duration from NOAA Atlas 14 is projected to become the 50‐year ARI in the Northern Great Plains, less than the 25‐year ARI in Southwest areas, and approximately the 25‐year ARI in the other regions by 2100. While a nationwide consensus is still needed, this work presents a possible methodology for incorporating climate uncertainty in engineering design. A comparison across major metropolitan areas also illustrates regional variability in projected changes relative to NOAA Atlas 14, suggesting a need for varied local‐scale responses.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Potential Impacts of Future Extreme Precipitation Changes on Flood Engineering Design Across the Contiguous United States

Coelho

Ferreira

Johnston

et al. 2022

Water Resources Research

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Environment communication research argues that several initiatives struggle to communicate due to the deficiency in the message ( Bertolotti and Catellani, 2014 ), medium ( Ettinger et al, 2021 ; White, 2021 ) or communication style ( Villar, 2021 ). In the context of risk communication, for the urge to have input from citizens, an effective framing strategy is core to its success ( Qiu et al, 2020 ).…”

Section: Discussion and Implicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Embedded Philanthropic CSR in Digital China: Unified View of Prosocial and Pro-environmental Practices

Rafique

Zhou

et al. 2021

Front. Psychol.

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In recent decades, China has transformed from a conventional society into a digitally competitive nation. From an economic perspective, embedded corporate social responsibility (CSR) is gaining a new height where gamified charity is a trendy approach. By adopting the norm activation model from the point of view of the stimulus–organism–response framework, this research theoretically conceptualized the role of the mobile application environment (including telepresence, functional transparency, and accessibility) to map the cognition and philanthropic behavioral intentions of consumers in the gamified setting. The quantified survey comprised 669 respondents. The findings highlighted the critical role of functional transparency and telepresence of a mobile application in driving consumers’ warm glow and ascribed responsibility. The research underlined the presence of the unique DNA of Internet Plus Charity (Public Benefits) for prosocial and pro-environmental purposes in China under the umbrella of philanthropic CSR.

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“…Intensity Rain Intensity In estimating the amount of discharge, data on the maximum hourly rainfall and adequate rainfall are needed [30] [31]. Based on the distribution of rain, the amount of rain every hour will fall during the concentration-time of the rainy period.…”

Section: Rainmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood Disaster Mitigation Using the HEC-RAS Application to Determine River Water Levels in the Old City Area of Jakarta

Sejati

Khansa

et al. 2021

att

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The old city area is a tourist area strategically located in the heart of the capital city of DKI Jakarta. The Krukut river is one of the rivers that often overflow, which is one of the causes of flooding in Jakarta. This study aims to determine the water level of the Krukut river so that it can be used as a reference in handling flood disaster mitigation. This study uses the Nakayasu method and the Snyder method to calculate flood discharge, with a return period of up to 100 years. Meanwhile, for modeling the river water level using the HEC-RAS 5.0.07 application. The results of this study, specifically on the upstream cross-section until 300 meters after that TMA, are pretty high with plan one, which is 3 m deep from the bottom of the channel. However, the track still has a sufficient guard height of about 1.5 m. In other words, no overtopping/ river water does not overflow in the upstream area with a return period of 10 years and 25 years. However, due to the narrower channel section, the upstream region is more prone to flooding than the middle downstream area. From the modeling results, the channel prone to erosion is the section 10 track which is widening at the same time that the channel is not filled with the CONCRETE channel, so it is effortless to erode. For this reason, it is recommended to repair the walls of the river/channel to avoid scouring, especially if there is a high/extreme discharge.

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Efficient statistical approach to develop intensity-duration-frequency curves for precipitation and runoff under future climate

Cited by 21 publications

References 41 publications

Potential Impacts of Future Extreme Precipitation Changes on Flood Engineering Design Across the Contiguous United States

Potential Impacts of Future Extreme Precipitation Changes on Flood Engineering Design Across the Contiguous United States

Embedded Philanthropic CSR in Digital China: Unified View of Prosocial and Pro-environmental Practices

Flood Disaster Mitigation Using the HEC-RAS Application to Determine River Water Levels in the Old City Area of Jakarta

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