Warming-induced changes in lake thermal and mixing regimes present risks to water quality and ecosystem services provided by U.S. lakes and reservoirs. Modulation of responses by different physical and hydroclimatic settings are not well understood. We explore the potential effects of climate change on 27 lake "archetypes" representative of a range of lakes and reservoirs occurring throughout the U.S. Archetypes are based on different combinations of depth, surface area, and water clarity. LISSS, a one-dimensional dynamic thermal simulation model, is applied to assess lake response to multiple mid-21st century change scenarios applied to nine baseline climate series from different hydroclimatic regions of the U.S. Results show surface water temperature increases of about 77 % of increase in average air temperature change. Bottom temperature changes are less (around 30 %) for deep lakes and in regions that maintain mid-winter air temperatures below freezing. Significant decreases in length of ice cover are projected, and the extent and strength of stratification will increase throughout the U.S., with systematic differences associated with depth, surface area, and clarity. These projected responses suggest a range of future challenges that lake managers are likely to face. Changes in thermal and mixing dynamics suggest increased risk of summer Climatic Change (2015) 129:295-305

Subacute effects of pulsed copper, zinc, or ammonia exposures were examined, including a range of pulse concentrations, durations, frequencies, and recovery times between pulses, using short-term chronic Pimephales promelas and 21-d Daphnia magna tests. Sublethal effects were rarely observed independent of mortality. Effects were observed only at concentrations near the species continuous exposure 48 h LC50 for each chemical. Daphnia often rebounded from temporary reproduction effects, meeting or exceeding control responses by the end of the test. Effects of 24 h ammonia or copper pulses were diminished soon after the pulse was removed, while 24 h zinc pulses caused continued effects for several days following removal of the pulse, indicating a slower uptake and/or depuration rate for zinc. D. magna exhibited less mortality as copper pulses were spaced further apart, while fish were equally or more affected with longer recovery times between copper pulses, indicative of different adaptation mechanisms between the two species. Responses were not predictable based on either average concentration or a combination of duration and concentration. Chronic water quality criteria and effluent permit limits, expressed as a 4- or 30-d average concentration, respectively, may not be appropriate for protecting against effects of pulsed exposures, depending on the frequency, magnitude, and duration of pulses, as well as the recovery period between events.

Robust hydrologic models are needed to help manage water resources for healthy aquatic ecosystems and reliable water supplies for people, but there is a lack of comprehensive model comparison studies that quantify differences in streamflow predictions among model applications developed to answer management questions. We assessed differences in daily streamflow predictions by four fine‐scale models and two regional‐scale monthly time step models by comparing model fit statistics and bias in ecologically relevant flow statistics (ERFSs) at five sites in the Southeastern USA. Models were calibrated to different extents, including uncalibrated (level A), calibrated to a downstream site (level B), calibrated specifically for the site (level C) and calibrated for the site with adjusted precipitation and temperature inputs (level D). All models generally captured the magnitude and variability of observed streamflows at the five study sites, and increasing level of model calibration generally improved performance. All models had at least 1 of 14 ERFSs falling outside a +/−30% range of hydrologic uncertainty at every site, and ERFSs related to low flows were frequently over‐predicted. Our results do not indicate that any specific hydrologic model is superior to the others evaluated at all sites and for all measures of model performance. Instead, we provide evidence that (1) model performance is as likely to be related to calibration strategy as it is to model structure and (2) simple, regional‐scale models have comparable performance to the more complex, fine‐scale models at a monthly time step. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Watershed modeling in 20 large, United States (U.S.) watersheds addresses gaps in our knowledge of streamflow, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus), and sediment loading sensitivity to mid-21st Century climate change and urban/residential development scenarios. Use of a consistent methodology facilitates regional scale comparisons across the study watersheds. Simulations use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Climate change scenarios are from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program dynamically downscaled climate model output. Urban and residential development scenarios are from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios project. Simulations provide a plausible set of streamflow and water quality responses to mid-21st Century climate change across the U.S. Simulated changes show a general pattern of decreasing streamflow volume in the central Rockies and Southwest, and increases on the East Coast and Northern Plains. Changes in pollutant loads follow a similar pattern but with increased variability. Ensemble mean results suggest that by the mid-21st Century, statistically significant changes in streamflow and total suspended solids loads (relative to baseline conditions) are possible in roughly 30-40% of study watersheds. These proportions increase to around 60% for total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads. Projected urban/ residential development, and watershed responses to development, are small at the large spatial scale of modeling in this study.(KEY TERMS: climate change; urban and residential development; streamflow; water quality; sensitivity; assessment; Soil and Water Assessment Tool.)

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Semiempirical models are useful for interpreting the response of aquatic organisms to toxicants as a function of exposure concentration and duration. Most applications predict cumulative mortality at the end of the test for constant exposure concentrations. Summary measures, such as the median lethal concentration, are then estimated as a function of concentration. Real-world exposures are not constant. Effects may depend on pulse timing, and cumulative analysis based only on integrated exposure concentration is not sufficient to interpret results. We undertook a series of pulsed-exposure experiments using standard toxicological protocols and interpreted the results (mortality, biomass, and reproduction) using a dynamic generalization of a Mancini/Breck--type model that includes two compartments, one for internal concentration as a function of exposure and one for site-of-action concentration or accumulated damage as a function of the internal dose. At exposure concentrations near the effects level, the model explained approximately 50% of the variability in the observed time history of survival, 43% of the change in biomass, and 83% of the variability in net reproduction. Unexplained variability may result from differences in organism susceptibility, amplified by the effects of small sample sizes in standard tests. The results suggest that response is sensitive to prior conditions and that constant-exposure experiments can underestimate the risk from intermittent exposures to the same concentration. For pulsed exposures, neither the average nor the maximum concentration alone is an adequate index of risk, which depends on both the magnitude, duration, and timing of exposure pulses. Better understanding about the impacts of pulsed exposures will require use of experimental protocols with significantly greater numbers of replicates.

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