The Paris Agreement introduces long-term strategies as an instrument to inform progressively more ambitious emission reduction objectives, whilst holding development goals paramount in context of national circumstances. In the lead up to COP21, the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project developed mid-century low-emission pathways for 16 countries, based on an innovative pathway design framework. In this Perspective we describe this framework and show how it can support the development of sectorally and technologically detailed and policy-relevant country-driven strategies consistent with the Paris Agreement climate goal. We also discuss how this framework can be used to engage stakeholder input and buy-in; design implementation policy packages; reveal necessary technological, financial and institutional enabling conditions; and support global stocktaking and ratcheting of ambition.

 Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research.  You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain  You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim.

Low-carbon society scenarios visualize social, economic and technological transitions through which societies respond to climate change. This article assesses two paradigms for transiting to a low-carbon future in India. An integrated modelling framework is used for delineating and assessing the alternative development pathways having equal cumulative CO 2 emissions during the first half of the 21st century. The first pathway assumes a conventional development pattern together with a carbon price that aligns India's emissions to an optimal 550 ppmv CO 2 e stabilization global response. The second emissions pathway assumes an underlying sustainable development pattern characterized by diverse response measures typical of the 'sustainability' paradigm. A comparative analysis of the alternative development strategies is presented on multiple indicators such as energy security, air quality, technology stocks and adaptive capacity, and conclusions are drawn.Les scénarios de sociétés sobres en carbone conçoivent des transitions sociales, économiques et technologiques à travers lesquelles la société répond au changement climatique. Ce papier évalue deux paradigmes de transition vers un futur sobre en carbone en Inde. Un cadre de modélisation intégrée est employé pour décliner et évaluer différents axes de développement ayant les mêmes émissions cumulatives de CO 2 pendant la première moitié du 21ème siècle. Le premier axe suppose un mode de développement traditionnel ainsi qu'un prix du carbone qui aligne les émissions de l'Inde à une réponse mondiale de stabilisation optimum de 550 ppmv CO 2 eq. Le second axe adopte un mode de développement durable sous-jacent caricaturé par diverses mesures de réponse typiques du paradigme de « durabilité ». Une analyse comparative des différentes stratégies de développement est présentée sur la base d'indicateurs multiples tels que la sécurité énergétique, qualité de l'air, stocks de technologie et capacité d'adaptation et des conclusions sont tirées.Mots clés: axes de développement; changement climatique; développement durable; fixation du prix du carbone; Inde; mix énergétique; modélisation de scénarios; pays en développement; société faiblement carbonée

Dependence on oil for transport is a concern for India's policymakers on three countsenergy security, local environment and climate change. Rapid urbanisation and accompanying motorisation has created some of the most polluting cities in India and rising demand for oil is leading to higher imports, besides causing more CO 2 emissions. The government of India wants to achieve the climate goals through a sustainability approach that simultaneously addresses other environment and developmental challenges. This paper analyses a sustainable low carbon transport (SLCT) scenario based on sustainable strategies for passenger and freight mobility, vehicle technologies and fuel using global CO 2 prices that correspond to 2 O C global stabilisation target. The scenarios span from years 2010 to 2050 and are analysed using the energy system model -ANSWER MARKAL. The SLCT scenario has improved energy security (cumulative oil demand lower by 3100 Mtoe), improved air quality (PM 2.5 emissions never exceed the existing levels) and the cumulative CO 2 emissions are lower by 13 billion t CO 2 thereby showing that achieving development objectives with CO 2 co-benefits is feasible.Key Words : Transport Demand, CO 2 Mitigation, Co-Benefits, Energy Security Highlights :1) India's BAU transitions pose challenges for energy security and climate change.2) Sustainable transport policies deliver benefits for air quality and energy security.3) Sustainable transport policies fall short of mitigation needed for 2 O C stabilization. 4) Transport sector becomes increasingly dependent on electricity. 5) Low carbon policies are essential to clean transport and electricity generation.2

No abstract

The Paris agreement stresses on concerted efforts to limit global temperature increase to 2°C and make efforts towards achieving 1.5°C temperature stabilization. Countries announced actions under the Nationally Determined Contributions outlining domestic mitigation actions to achieve the global target. Understanding the impact of these actions on achieving these ambitions requires an assessment of long term national level scenarios. Limited studies currently exist that model long term scenarios at national level addressing the impacts of Nationally Determined Contributions and the additional actions required, especially at the sectoral level. The paper compares four alternate future scenarios for India spanning till 2050, with a specific focus on the passenger and freight transportation. The analysis is performed using the ANSWER MARKAL model and complemented with methodologies to estimate transportation demand under strong decarbonisation pathways. The results show that 1.5°C scenario would need immediate actions and deep transformations. Demand side actions would, in addition to infrastructure investments require transforming human behaviour through use of information technology, internet and sharing economy. Clean vehicle technologies need to play a much bigger role and fossil fuel dependence would be moderated with the dominance of electricity, hydrogen and biofuels. The higher share of electricity in transport is complimented with accelerated decarbonisation of electricity. This transformation required for 1.5°C scenario calls for innovations that would be driven through national and sectoral policies and explicit carbon prices.

We analyze long-term impacts of the international pledges for China and India. We compare a least-cost pathway with a pathway starting from the Copenhagen pledges. Postponing mitigation action implies much higher cumulative mitigation costs. Postponing increases fossil fuel dependence and requires deeper long-term reductions. Countries differ mainly due to different periods of rapid economic change.

No abstract