Low carbon scenarios for transport in India: Co-benefits analysis

Abstract

Dependence on oil for transport is a concern for India's policymakers on three countsenergy security, local environment and climate change. Rapid urbanisation and accompanying motorisation has created some of the most polluting cities in India and rising demand for oil is leading to higher imports, besides causing more CO 2 emissions. The government of India wants to achieve the climate goals through a sustainability approach that simultaneously addresses other environment and developmental challenges. This paper analyses a sustainable low carbon transport (SLCT) scenario based on sustainable strategies for passenger and freight mobility, vehicle technologies and fuel using global CO 2 prices that correspond to 2 O C global stabilisation target. The scenarios span from years 2010 to 2050 and are analysed using the energy system model -ANSWER MARKAL. The SLCT scenario has improved energy security (cumulative oil demand lower by 3100 Mtoe), improved air quality (PM 2.5 emissions never exceed the existing levels) and the cumulative CO 2 emissions are lower by 13 billion t CO 2 thereby showing that achieving development objectives with CO 2 co-benefits is feasible.Key Words : Transport Demand, CO 2 Mitigation, Co-Benefits, Energy Security Highlights :1) India's BAU transitions pose challenges for energy security and climate change.2) Sustainable transport policies deliver benefits for air quality and energy security.3) Sustainable transport policies fall short of mitigation needed for 2 O C stabilization. 4) Transport sector becomes increasingly dependent on electricity. 5) Low carbon policies are essential to clean transport and electricity generation.2

Managing Traffic Flows for Cleaner Cities: The Role of Green Navigation Systems

“…Transport policies designed to avert climate change show co-benefits for air pollution mitigation [21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28]; however, they also present conflicts. A well-known case is the shift to diesel cars, which not only delivered less CO 2 reductions than expected [29,30] but also increased air pollution.…”

Decarbonizing the transportation sector: policy options, synergies, and institutions to deliver on a low‐carbon stabilization pathway

“…It is often claimed that transport is one of the hardest sectors to decarbonize . This view is challenged by a number of more recent papers, which show that an integrated policy approach can address the creation cobenefits with other key policy objectives, such as health, productivity, energy security, and safety, which can lead to a maximum of socioeconomic benefits . These synergies between policy objectives have the potential to incorporate the positions of relevant veto players, which can help form coalitions to support policy implementation …”

“…30,35,36 This view is challenged by a number of more recent papers, which show that an integrated policy approach can address the creation cobenefits with other key policy objectives, such as health, productivity, energy security, and safety, which can lead to a maximum of socioeconomic benefits. [37][38][39][40][41] These synergies between policy objectives have the potential to incorporate the positions of relevant veto players, which can help form coalitions to support policy implementation. 42 If applied in isolation, policy measures are unlikely to achieve goals without generating trade offs that create the risk of a veto player blocking the implementation process.…”

“…Potential to reduce energy consumption by 10-30% 45,46 Reduced travel times; public health, safety, and more equitable access 37,39,47,48 Shift Structure (shift to more energyefficient modes)…”

India’s GHG Emission Reduction and Sustainable Development

“…MARKAL is an optimization mathematical model for analyzing the energy system and has a rich characterization of technology and fuel mix at end-use level while maintaining consistency with system constraints such as energy supply, demand, investment, and emissions (Loulou et al 2004). The ANSWER-MARKAL model framework has been used extensively for India (Shukla et al 2008Dhar and Shukla 2015). AIM/CGE and GCAM are top-down, computable general equilibrium (CGE), models used to compute the GDP loss and CO 2 price for the 2 C stabilization scenario.…”