Transformation of India's transport sector under global warming of 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenario

Abstract

The Paris agreement stresses on concerted efforts to limit global temperature increase to 2°C and make efforts towards achieving 1.5°C temperature stabilization. Countries announced actions under the Nationally Determined Contributions outlining domestic mitigation actions to achieve the global target. Understanding the impact of these actions on achieving these ambitions requires an assessment of long term national level scenarios. Limited studies currently exist that model long term scenarios at national level addressing the impacts of Nationally Determined Contributions and the additional actions required, especially at the sectoral level. The paper compares four alternate future scenarios for India spanning till 2050, with a specific focus on the passenger and freight transportation. The analysis is performed using the ANSWER MARKAL model and complemented with methodologies to estimate transportation demand under strong decarbonisation pathways. The results show that 1.5°C scenario would need immediate actions and deep transformations. Demand side actions would, in addition to infrastructure investments require transforming human behaviour through use of information technology, internet and sharing economy. Clean vehicle technologies need to play a much bigger role and fossil fuel dependence would be moderated with the dominance of electricity, hydrogen and biofuels. The higher share of electricity in transport is complimented with accelerated decarbonisation of electricity. This transformation required for 1.5°C scenario calls for innovations that would be driven through national and sectoral policies and explicit carbon prices.

Low-Carbon Quick Wins: Integrating Short-Term Sustainable Transport Options in Climate Policy in Low-Income Countries

“…Among other low-carbon options, these show the importance of some of the quick wins as well. In India, Dhar et al [17] modelled low-carbon scenarios for transport for a 1.5 degree scenario, with vehicle fuel efficiency, transport demand management (in passenger and freight), biofuels, modal shift (in passenger and freight), and electric vehicles (including two-wheelers) playing a key role. For Bangladesh, Gota & Anthapur [18] developed low-carbon freight scenarios, also estimating black carbon emissions, that consider broad Avoid, Shift and Improve strategies.…”

“…For the 1.5-degree scenario in India, demand-side urban transport measures are essential [17], and CO 2 emissions is one of the key indicators in comprehensive mobility plans in India [28]. Urban transport measures in 7 Indonesian cities, supported by a national urban transport framework, can save 0.1-0.2 tCO 2 per capita in 2030 [29] 3.…”

Vehicle Optimal Control Design to Meet the 1.5 °C Target: A Control Design Framework for Vehicle Subsystems

“…The travel distance of vehicle type T in 2050 was obtained in terms of the transport demand of vehicle type T under a BAU scenario by 2050, distinguished from previous research [16,17] using the population of vehicle type T and the average distance traveled of vehicle type T in 2050 to estimate the travel distance. The transport demand of vehicle type T under a BAU scenario by 2050 is provided in [18].…”

Spatially contextualized analysis of energy use for commuting in India

“…India's motorized vehicle growth has increased exponentially over time, and is dominated by twowheeler ( figure 1(a)) that led to exponential increase in the road transport sector's GHG emissions ( figure 1(b)). Dhar et al (2018) estimated that Indian transport sector energy demand would increase by 4.5 times, 2.7 times, 2.4 times, and 1.7 times in Business As Usual, Nationally Determined Contributions, 2°C, and 1.5°C scenarios respectively by 2050 compared to 2015 levels. Notably, Dhar et al suggest that deep decorbonization in the transport sector, such as envisaged in 2°C or1.5°C scenarios, will require both demand and supply side policy interventions, including transformative human behaviors relying on information technology, internet and the sharing economy, the electrification of the transport sector, and innovations in national and sectoral policies, including decarbonization of electricities and explicit carbon prices.…”

“…Given the high and growing share of carbon emissions from the transport sector, several studies have been conducted to deepen the understanding on transportbased GHG emissions, particularly, its measurements and compositions, geographic/spatial variations, and determinants or correlates. Major transport-based studies on GHG emissions used aggregate level assessment, as those from the International Energy Agency's studies (IEA 2009), and integrated assessment modelling (Edelenbosch et al 2017, Dhar et al 2018. Studies using bottom-up approach utilized disaggregated GHG emissions, such as activity-based (e.g.…”