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Scenarios of CO2-induced climatic change, based on models produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL), were used to estimate future changes in water supply in the Great Lakes Basin. The major components of annual Net Basin Supply, surface runoff and lake evaporation, were estimated using the Thornthwaite water balance model and the mass transfer approach, respectively. Two scenarios were derived from each climatic change model, one based on present normal winds, the other assuming reduced wind speeds. A third scenario was derived from GFDL, using wind speeds generated by the GFDL model. Resuits varied from a decrease in Net Basin Supply of 28.9% for GISS-normal winds, to a decrease of 11.7% for GFDLreduced wind speeds. All five scenarios projected decreases. These differences in projection will have to be considered when performing climate impact studies, since economic activities affected by lake levels would probably experience different impacts under these scenarios.

The research activity described in this report is a comprehensive regional assessment of the impacts of climate change on water resources and options for adaptation in the Okanagan Basin. The ultimate goal of the project is to develop integrated climate change and water resource scenarios to stimulate a multistakeholder discussion on the implications of climate change for water management in the region.The paper describes two main objectives: (a) providing a set of research products that will be of relevance to regional interests in the Okanagan, and (b) establishing a methodology for participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change impacts and adaptation that could be applied to climate-related concerns in Canada and other countries.This collaborative study has relied on field research, computer-based models, and dialogue exercises to generate an assessment of future implications, and to learn about regional views on the prospects for adaptation. Along the way, it has benefited from strong partnerships with governments, researchers, local water practitioners, and user groups. Building on the scenario-based study components, and a series of interviews and surveys undertaken for the water management and adaptation case study components, a set of stakeholder dialogue sessions were organized which focused on identifying preferred adaptation options and processes for their implementation. Rather than seeking consensus on the "best" option or process, regional interests were asked to consider a range of available options as part of an adaptation portfolio that could address both supply side and demand side aspects of water resources management in the Okanagan. * The Canadian Crown reserves the right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright.

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