Impacts of CO2-induced climatic change on water resources in the Great Lakes Basin

Cohen, Stewart

doi:10.1007/bf00139751

Cited by 116 publications

(71 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Différents modèles de circulation générale ont été utilisés jusqu'à maintenant dans les études hydrologiques nord-américaines mentionnées précé-demment (COHEN, 1986 ;CROLEY et HARTMANN, 1989). En particulier, pour les études sur les Grands Lacs du Bouclier canadien, les résultats du modèle GISS du * Goddar Institute for Space Science » avec une résolution horizontale de 8° x 10° (latitude-longitude) et du modèle GFDL du « Geophysica!…”

Section: Matériel Et Méthodes Les Modèles De Circulation Générale (Mcg)unclassified

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Impacts de changements climatiques sur le régime hydrologique : le cas de la riviere Moisie

Morin¹,

Slivitzky²

2005

rseau

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Les résultats du modèle de circulation générale (MCG) à haute résolution du Centre climatologique canadien (CCC) sont utilisés pour estimer l'ampleur des impacts d'éventuels changements climatiques sur le régime hydrologique d'une rivière de la côte nord du Saint-Laurent.Pour le Québec, le MCG du CCC prévoit des augmentations annuelles de l'ordre de 0 à 15 % pour les précipitations et de 4 à 5° C pour les températures, tandis que les variations saisonnières seraient beaucoup plus importantes, les températures hivernales (décembre à février) augmentant de 6 à 9° C et les précipitations 15 à 20 %.Le modèle hydrologique CEQUEAU est appliqué au bassin versant de la rivière Moisie, pour simuler les débits dans le contexte climatique actuel et dans ce nouveau contexte climatique. Pour ce bassin versant, les précipitations annuelles seraient pratiquement inchangées alors que les températures annuelles augmenteraient de 4° C.En appliquant, aux 24 dernières années (1986-1989), les changements mensuels de précipitation et température découlant du MCG, le débit annuel moyen serait réduit d'environ 5 % et l'écart-type augmenterait de 15 %. La probabilité des années humides serait pratiquement inchangée alors que pour les années les plus sèches enregistrées au cours de ces 25 dernières années soit 600 mm, la probabilité de non dépassement dans ce nouveau contexte climatique passerait de 0,12 à 0,28 ; les débits annuels, d'occurence décennale, diminueraient d'environ 10 %.On assisterait à une modification plus importante dans la distribution mensuelle des écoulements. Les débits moyens des mois d'été (juillet à septembre) seraient réduits d'environ 35 % tandis que pour les mois d'hiver les écoulements moyens seraient plus soutenus.The output of the Canadian Climate Center (CCC) General Circulation Model (GCM), coupled with the hydrologic deterministic modes CEQUEAU is used to evaluate the possible impact of a doubling of atmospheric C02 on the hydrologic regime of the Moisie river on the North Shore of the St Lawrence.In regions where snow plays an important contribution to the annual runoff and the ground is covered with snow for periods from 4 to 6 months, the seasonal variations of climatic changes under a 2 x C02 scenario may have very different impact on hydrologic regimes; Figures 1 and 3 show the annual and winter distributions of temperature changes for Quebec under the CCC 2 x C02 scenarios, white figure 2 shows the possible changes in annual precipitation. The annual temperature will increase around 4 to 5° C, white winter temperatures may increase as much as 6 to 9° C ; annual precipitation will increase by 15 % to 20 %.The CEQUEAU hydrologic model (MORIN et al., 1981 ; MORIN et COUILLARD, 1990) is a deterministic model which takes into account number of physiographic characteristics of the drainage basin (such as elevation and percent of forest and lake area) as defined in number of square grids. The model uses for input daily minimum and maximum temperatures and daily solid and liquid precipitation (rainfall and s...

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Section: Matériel Et Méthodes Les Modèles De Circulation Générale (Mcg)unclassified

“…Ces méthodes ont été appliquées récemment avec succès au bassin des Grands Lacs du Bouclier canadien (COHEN, 1986(COHEN, , 1987CROLEY, 1990;HARTMANN, 1990 ;CROLEY et HARTMANN, 1989). Cependant la faible résolution spatiale des MCG utilisés limitait l'application de telles méthodes à des bassins de grandes dimensions.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Impacts de changements climatiques sur le régime hydrologique : le cas de la riviere Moisie

Morin¹,

Slivitzky²

2005

rseau

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“…The next generation of analyses (e.g. Rosenzweig 1985, Cohen 1986) used month-by-month or season-by-season simulations of climate from general circulation models (GCMs) for various points or gridcells on the surface of the earth. Most recently, analyses such as that of Wilks (1988) have used weather-generating techniques to produce realistic scenarios of daily weather series from the temporally aggregated GCM output that is made available for climate impact studies.…”

Section: Approaches To Examining Consequencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Without a truly coordinated national or international program in climate impact assessment, most of the studies have focused on particular aspects of individual resource sectors in individual regions (e.g. Blasing & Solomon 1984, Rosenzweig 1985, Cohen 1986, Gleick 1987a, Miller et al 1987, Pastor & Post 1988. These sectoral studies are described in Section 2.…”

Section: Approaches To Examining Consequencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Consequences of climatic change for the human environment

Scott¹,

Rosenberg²,

Edmonds³

et al. 1990

Clim. Res.

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This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the state of the science in estimating potential effects of climate change on the human environment. The paper provides a n overview of the state of effects research and outlines the analyses required in order to make adaptive policy. It compares approaches that have been taken for measuring the human consequences of climate change, and outlines the results of climate change impact studies that have been performed both on individual sectors and entire regions. The paper also discusses both the results of studies of historical environmental changes that serve as analogs for potential future climate change and the major sources of uncertainty. The paper concludes with a summary of effects, knowns and unknowns, and directions for future research. In general, future effects research needs to be targeted on regions rather than individual resources; it must take the timing of resource effects and technological change explicitly into account; and it must dlrectly address uncertainty using new and more efficient computational techniques, as opposed to brute-force Monte Carlo estimation.

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“…Specifically, in the Great Lakes Basin, both empirical and aerodynamic techniques have been used to estimate evaporation, and studies conducted by Cohen (1986Cohen ( , 1990, Sanderson (1987), and Croley (1990Croley ( , 2004 have found that evaporation would be significantly increased under climate change scenarios. Sanderson andSmith (1990, 1993) used the Thornthwaite model and Smith and McBean (1993) used the HELP model and predicted twenty to thirty percent increases in potential evaporation and approximately a 15% increase in actual evaporation to occur.…”

Section: Assessment Of Historical Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of impact of climate change on water resources: a long term analysis of the Great Lakes of North America

McBean

Motiee²

2008

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In the threshold of the appearance of global warming from theory to reality, extensive research has focused on predicting the impact of potential climate change on water resources using results from Global Circulation Models (GCMs). This research carries this further by statistical analyses of long term meteorological and hydrological data. Seventy years of historical trends in precipitation, temperature, and streamflows in the Great Lakes of North America are developed using long term regression analyses and Mann-Kendall statistics. The results generated by the two statistical procedures are in agreement and demonstrate that many of these variables are experiencing statistically significant increases over a seven-decade period. The trend lines of streamflows in the three rivers of St. Clair, Niagara and St. Lawrence, and precipitation levels over four of the five Great Lakes, show statistically significant increases in flows and precipitation. Further, precipitation rates as predicted using fitted regression lines are compared with scenarios from GCMs and demonstrate similar forecast predictions for Lake Superior. Trend projections from historical data are higher than GCM predictions for Lakes Michigan/Huron. Significant variability in predictions, as developed from alternative GCMs, is noted.

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Impacts of CO2-induced climatic change on water resources in the Great Lakes Basin

Cited by 116 publications

References 9 publications

Impacts de changements climatiques sur le régime hydrologique : le cas de la riviere Moisie

Impacts de changements climatiques sur le régime hydrologique : le cas de la riviere Moisie

Consequences of climatic change for the human environment

Assessment of impact of climate change on water resources: a long term analysis of the Great Lakes of North America

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