CoverImages on the cover represent a broad range of natural systems that drive the science supported by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research within the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science. These systems are not only structurally and spatially complex with many different interacting parts spanning molecular to global scales, but they also are dynamically complex, encompassing processes that occur over time scales ranging from nanoseconds to centuries.Image credits: Ball-and-stick representation of atoms within a molecule from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Ribosome molecular complex image from Ditlev Brodersen, Aarhus University. Microscopic image of fungal hyphae on a root surface, copyright Merton Brown, Visuals Unlimited. Forest ecosystem image from the U.S. National Park Service. Mountain and Earth images from iStockphoto. Cover developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

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This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the state of the science in estimating potential effects of climate change on the human environment. The paper provides a n overview of the state of effects research and outlines the analyses required in order to make adaptive policy. It compares approaches that have been taken for measuring the human consequences of climate change, and outlines the results of climate change impact studies that have been performed both on individual sectors and entire regions. The paper also discusses both the results of studies of historical environmental changes that serve as analogs for potential future climate change and the major sources of uncertainty. The paper concludes with a summary of effects, knowns and unknowns, and directions for future research. In general, future effects research needs to be targeted on regions rather than individual resources; it must take the timing of resource effects and technological change explicitly into account; and it must dlrectly address uncertainty using new and more efficient computational techniques, as opposed to brute-force Monte Carlo estimation.