Future visioning of local climate change: A framework for community engagement and planning with scenarios and visualisation

Sheppard, Stephen R.J.; Shaw, Alison; Flanders, David; Burch, Sarah; Wiek, Arnim; Carmichael, Jeff; Robinson, John; Cohen, Stewart

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2011.01.009

Cited by 305 publications

(212 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…This has social justice reasons, since local communities may be on the frontline of damaging climate change impacts, and practical benefits since residents and local organisations are intimately connected to local places, and familiar with the locality's particular social, historical and political contexts (Adger et al 2009;Kohler and Koontz 2008;Moser 2010;Sheppard et al 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A participatory systems approach to understanding climate adaptation needs

et al. 2015

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Emerging literature on climate adaptation suggests the need for effective ways of engaging or activating communities and supporting community roles, coupled with whole-of-system approaches to understanding climate change and adaptation needs. We have developed and evaluated a participatory approach to elicit community and stakeholder understanding of climate change adaptation needs, and connect diverse community members and local office bearers towards potential action. The approach was trialed in a series of connected social-ecological systems along a transect from a rural area to the coast and islands of ecologically sensitive Moreton Bay in Queensland, Australia. We conducted 'climate roundtables' in each of three areas along the transect, then a fourth roundtable reviewed and extended the results to the region as a whole. Influence diagrams produced through the process show how each climate variable forecast to affect this region (heat, storm, flood, sea-level rise, Climatic Change (2015) A participatory systems approach to understanding climate adaptation needs fire, drought) affects the natural environment, infrastructure, economic and social behaviour patterns, and psychosocial responses, and how sets of people, species and ecosystems are affected, and act, differentially. The participatory process proved effective as a way of building local empathy, a local knowledge base and empowering participants to join towards future climate adaptation action. Key principles are highlighted to assist in adapting the process for use elsewhere.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A participatory systems approach to understanding climate adaptation needs

et al. 2015

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“…Conceptual requirements for producing visualisation systems to inform and motivate lay-people, planners, and policy makers about climate change are given by Sheppard et al (2011). Sheppard et al (2008) also suggest that to bring climate change into people's backyards requires three things: 'disclosure' -provide a personal and meaningful window into the future; 'drama' -a vivid and compelling presentation; and 'defensibility' -a systematic and credible process that enables transparency and trust in the presenters and the underlying information.…”

Section: Engagement and Ease Of Understandingmentioning

confidence: 99%

An analysis of specialist and non-specialist user requirements for geographic climate change information

Maguire

2013

Applied Ergonomics

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Citation: MAGUIRE, M., 2013. An analysis of specialist and non-specialist user requirements for geographic climate change information. Applied Ergonomics, 44 (6), pp. 874 885. This item was submitted to Loughborough's Institutional Repository (https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/) by the author and is made available under the following Creative Commons Licence conditions.For the full text of this licence, please go to: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ 1 An analysis of specialist and non-specialist user requirements for geographic climate change information Martin C. Maguire Loughborough Design School, Loughborough University, Ashby Road, Loughborough, Leicestershire, LE11 3TU, UK m.c.maguire@lboro.ac.uk ABSTRACTThe EU EuroClim project developed a system to monitor and record climate change indicator data based on satellite observations of snow cover, sea ice and glaciers in Northern Europe and the Arctic. It also contained projection data for temperature, rainfall and average wind speed for Europe. These were all stored as data sets in a GIS database for users to download. The process of gathering requirements for a user population including scientists, researchers, policy makers, educationalists and the general public is described. Using an iterative design methodology, a user survey was administered to obtain initial feedback on the system concept followed by panel sessions where users were presented with the system concept and a demonstrator to interact with it. The requirements of both specialist and nonspecialist users is summarised together with strategies for the effective communication of geographic climate change information.Keywords: climate change; geographic information; graphical representation; user needs IntroductionClimate change can affect the living conditions of people worldwide. Dramatic changes may occur with the weather becoming more extreme, along with greater frequency of flooding, droughts and hurricanes. It is not known whether northern Europe will experience regional cooling or warming in a future warmer world. A report by the UK Climate Impacts Programme (Chapman, 2002) states that summer temperatures in the UK, for instance, could regularly reach 40°C (104°F) by the year 2080 as global warming appears to gather pace. Prince Charles called climate change the "greatest challenge to face man" (Mukherjee, 2005) while it is also observed that sea-ice is retreating dramatically in the autumn as well as the summer months (Amos, 2013). The potential effects of climate change are brought home by powerful images of sea level rise, coastal erosion, drought, displacement of people and changes in the habitat of wildlife. These developments are documented officially by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http://www.ipcc.ch).To support climate change research, there is a need for current data from the environment. Satellite monitoring of climate change indicators such as sea ice, snow and glaciers in Northern Europe and the Arctic is one source. This paper presents the results of...

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“…The importance of involving stakeholders and decisionmakers in policy-oriented vulnerability and adaptation research is well recognized (Ayers and Forsyth 2009;Carter et al 2007;Dodman and Mitlin 2013;Ford et al 2010b;Pearce et al 2009;Sheppard et al 2011;Wesche and Armitage 2010a;Wolfe et al 2007). If expectations are clear and participation is effectively scoped, engaging and empowering individuals and communities can improve stakeholder understanding and buy-in to both the process and resulting outcomes (Few et al 2007;Sheppard et al 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…If expectations are clear and participation is effectively scoped, engaging and empowering individuals and communities can improve stakeholder understanding and buy-in to both the process and resulting outcomes (Few et al 2007;Sheppard et al 2011). Furthermore, incorporating local experience and knowledge fosters the development of adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions that may not be clearly evident to, or understood by, outsiders and may result in lower-cost, socially oriented solutions (Ayers and Forsyth 2009;Dodman and Mitlin 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Scenario planning, initially a tool developed for the military, has been adapted for corporate management and more recently for assessing and planning for multiple aspects of environmental change (Bohensky et al 2011(Bohensky et al , 2006Gidley et al 2009;Kok et al 2007;Miller and Waller 2003;Odada et al 2009;Peterson et al 2003;Peterson 2007;Sheppard et al 2011). In these contexts, scenarios are not meant to be probabilistic forecasts of future conditions, but are rather images of possible alternate futures based on assumptions about key relationships and drivers of change (Chaudhury et al 2013;Nakićenović 2000;Peterson et al 2003b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Using qualitative scenarios to understand regional environmental change in the Canadian North

Wesche

Armitage

2013

Reg Environ Change

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This paper discusses the application of qualitative scenarios to understand community vulnerability and adaptation responses, based on a case study in the Slave River Delta region of the Northwest Territories, Canada. Three qualitative, graphic scenarios of possible alternative futures were developed, focusing on two main drivers: climate change and resource development. These were used as a focal point for discussions with a crosssection of residents from the community during focus groups, interviews and a community workshop. Significant overlap among the areas of perceived vulnerability is evident among scenarios, particularly in relation to traditional land use. However, each scenario also offers insights about specific challenges facing community members. Climate change was perceived to engender mostly negative livelihood impacts, whereas resource development was expected to trigger a mix of positive and negative impacts, both of which may be more dramatic than in the ''climate change only'' scenario. The scenarios were also used to identify adaptation options specific to individual drivers of change, as well as more universally applicable options. Identified adaptation options were generally aligned with five sectors-environment and natural resources, economy, community management and development, infrastructure and services, and information and training-which effectively offer a first step towards prioritization of ''no regrets'' measures. From an empirical perspective, while the scenarios highlighted the need for bottom-up measures, they also elucidated discussion about local agency in adaptation and enabled the examination of multi-dimensional impacts on different community subgroups. An incongruity emerged between the suite of technically oriented adaptation options and more socially and behaviourally oriented barriers to implementation. Methodologically, the qualitative scenarios were flexible, socially inclusive and consistent with the Indigenous worldview; allowed the incorporation of different knowledge systems; addressed future community vulnerability and adaptation; and led to the identification of socially feasible and bottom-up adaptation outcomes. Despite some caveats regarding resource requirements for participatory scenario development, qualitative scenarios offer a versatile tool to address a range of vulnerability and adaptation issues in the context of other Indigenous communities.

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Future visioning of local climate change: A framework for community engagement and planning with scenarios and visualisation

Cited by 305 publications

References 36 publications

A participatory systems approach to understanding climate adaptation needs

A participatory systems approach to understanding climate adaptation needs

An analysis of specialist and non-specialist user requirements for geographic climate change information

Using qualitative scenarios to understand regional environmental change in the Canadian North

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