Hydrologic response to scenarios of climate change in sub watersheds of the Okanagan basin, British Columbia

Merritt, Wendy; Alila, Younes; Barton, Mark; Taylor, Bill; Cohen, Stewart; Neilsen, D.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.10.025

Cited by 161 publications

(106 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Daniel (2011) gives a good comparison of different frequently used models but the number of different models is simply too large to be covered entirely. The integration of raster data sets has been implemented in different models such as the MIKE SHE (Cooper et al, 2006;Liu et al, 2012) or CREST (Khan et al, 2011) models, and several more examples of raster data input are available (Merritt et al, 2006;Stahl et al, 2008;Wood et al, 2004). While each of these models has specific qualities, none of them globally outperforms the others.…”

Section: Hydrological Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity analysis and implications for surface processes from a hydrological modelling approach in the Gunt catchment, high Pamir Mountains

et al. 2015

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Abstract.A clear understanding of the hydrology is required to capture surface processes and potential inherent hazards in orogens. Complex climatic interactions control hydrological processes in high mountains that in their turn regulate the erosive forces shaping the relief. To unravel the hydrological cycle of a glaciated watershed (Gunt River) considered representative of the Pamir Mountains' hydrologic regime, we developed a remotesensing-based approach. At the boundary between two distinct climatic zones dominated by the Westerlies and Indian summer monsoon, the Pamir Mountains are poorly instrumented and only a few in situ meteorological and hydrological data are available. We adapted a suitable conceptual distributed hydrological model (J2000g). Interpolations of the few available in situ data are inadequate due to strong, relief-induced, spatial heterogeneities. Instead of these we use raster data, preferably from remote sensing sources depending on availability and validation. We evaluate remote-sensing-based precipitation and temperature products. MODIS MOD11 surface temperatures show good agreement with in situ data, perform better than other products, and represent a good proxy for air temperatures. For precipitation we tested remote sensing products as well as the HAR10 climate model data and the interpolation-based APHRODITE data set. All products show substantial differences both in intensity and seasonal distribution with in situ data. Despite low resolutions, the data sets are able to sustain high model efficiencies (NSE ≥ 0.85). In contrast to neighbouring regions in the Himalayas or the Hindu Kush, discharge is dominantly the product of snow and glacier melt, and thus temperature is the essential controlling factor. Eighty percent of annual precipitation is provided as snow in winter and spring contrasting peak discharges during summer. Hence, precipitation and discharge are negatively correlated and display complex hysteresis effects that allow for the effect of interannual climatic variability on river flow to be inferred. We infer the existence of two subsurface reservoirs. The groundwater reservoir (providing 40 % of annual discharge) recharges in spring and summer and releases slowly during autumn and winter, when it provides the only source for river discharge. A not fully constrained shallow reservoir with very rapid retention times buffers meltwaters during spring and summer. The negative glacier mass balance (−0.6 m w.e. yr −1 ) indicates glacier retreat, which will ultimately affect the currently 30 % contribution of glacier melt to annual stream flow. The spatiotemporal dependence of water release from snow and ice during the annual cycle likewise implies spatiotemporally restricted surface processes, which are essentially confined to glaciated catchments in late summer, when glacier runoff is the only source of surface runoff. Only this precise constraint of the hydrologic cycle in this complex region allows for unravelling of the surface processes and natural hazards such as floo...

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Section: Hydrological Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity analysis and implications for surface processes from a hydrological modelling approach in the Gunt catchment, high Pamir Mountains

et al. 2015

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“…As future changes in river discharge and watershed hydrology caused by global warming are important factors for water management, many researchers have studied the sensitivity of streamflow and hydrological processes to climate change (e.g. Merritt et al, 2006;Hagg et al, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of temperature change on water discharge, and sediment and nutrient loading in the lower Pearl River basin based on SWAT modelling

Chen

Wang

et al. 2011

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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The impact of climate change on hydrological processes and nutrient input is one of the major uncertainties in projecting future global warming. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is applied to simulate the effects of temperature on the hydrology and sediment and nutrient load in the lower Pearl River Basin, South China. Calibration and validation results for SWAT showed that the Yamen estuary is appropriate for simulating the impacts of temperature change on both hydrological processes and nutrient input. The possible temperature change scenarios were set at T-2, T-1.5, T-1, T-0.5, T+0.5, T+1, T+1.5, T+2, T+2.5, T+3 • C compared to the current temperature, T• C. The results showed that the relative variation of discharge with temperature was slight. The sediment load at T+3• C is increased by 13.58% compared to that at T • C. Inorganic N and P inputs to the Yamen estuary showed an increasing trend with the temperature increase from T-2• C to T+3 • C. Global warming can reduce the vegetation land cover by slowing plant growth, which will aggravate the water and soil loss. Temperature changes would have an effect on mineralization and nitrification by changing soil temperature and temperatures. The warming is projected to cause an increase of sediment and nutrient load into the estuary and accelerate eutrophication in the coastal area.

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“…The model was primarily designed for the simulation of streamflow from mountainous watersheds, where the runoff from snowmelt and glacier melt may be important, apart from the rainfall runoff. However, the UBC watershed model has been applied to variety climatic regions, ranging from coastal to inland mountain regions of British Columbia, including the Rocky Mountains, and the subarctic region of Canada (Hudson and Quick, 1997;Quick et al, 1998;Micovic and Quick, 1999;Loukas et al, 2000;Druce, 2001;Morrison et al, 2002;Whitfield et al, 2002;Merritt et al, 2006;Assaf, 2007). The model has also been applied to the Himalayas and Karakoram Mountain Ranges in India and Pakistan, the Southern Alps in New Zealand, and the Snowy Mountains in Australia (Singh and Kumar, 1997;Singh and Singh, 2001;Quick, 2012;Naeem et al, 2013).…”

Section: The Ubc Watershed Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Streamflow simulation methods for ungauged and poorly gauged watersheds

Λουκάς

Vasiliades

2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Rainfall-runoff modelling procedures for ungauged and poorly gauged watersheds are developed in this study. A well-established hydrological model, the University of British Columbia (UBC) watershed model, is selected and applied in five different river basins located in Canada, Cyprus, and Pakistan. Catchments from cold, temperate, continental, and semiarid climate zones are included to demonstrate the procedures developed. Two methodologies for streamflow modelling are proposed and analysed. The first method uses the UBC watershed model with a universal set of parameters for water allocation and flow routing, and precipitation gradients estimated from the available annual precipitation data as well as from regional information on the distribution of orographic precipitation. This method is proposed for watersheds without streamflow gauge data and limited meteorological station data. The second hybrid method proposes the coupling of UBC watershed model with artificial neural networks (ANNs) and is intended for use in poorly gauged watersheds which have limited streamflow measurements. The two proposed methods have been applied to five mountainous watersheds with largely varying climatic, physiographic, and hydrological characteristics. The evaluation of the applied methods is based on the combination of graphical results, statistical evaluation metrics, and normalized goodness-of-fit statistics. The results show that the first method satisfactorily simulates the observed hydrograph assuming that the basins are ungauged. When limited streamflow measurements are available, the coupling of ANNs with the regional, non-calibrated UBC flow model components is considered a successful alternative method to the conventional calibration of a hydrological model based on the evaluation criteria employed for streamflow modelling and flood frequency estimation.

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Hydrologic response to scenarios of climate change in sub watersheds of the Okanagan basin, British Columbia

Cited by 161 publications

References 36 publications

Sensitivity analysis and implications for surface processes from a hydrological modelling approach in the Gunt catchment, high Pamir Mountains

Sensitivity analysis and implications for surface processes from a hydrological modelling approach in the Gunt catchment, high Pamir Mountains

Effects of temperature change on water discharge, and sediment and nutrient loading in the lower Pearl River basin based on SWAT modelling

Streamflow simulation methods for ungauged and poorly gauged watersheds

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