BACKGROUND The coconut hispine beetle Brontispa longissima Gestro (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) is one of the most serious pests of the coconut palm, Cocos nucifera L. (Arecales: Arecaceae) and other palms. The invasion of B. longissima causes major economic and ecological losses worldwide. In this study, the impacts of climate change on the risk of spread were evaluated. CLIMEX was used to project its global potential distribution based on historical climate data (1987–2016) and simulated future climate data (2071–2100). RESULTS The distribution of B. longissima included each continent under historical and future climate conditions. However, climate suitability was predicted to decrease in most tropical and subtropical regions under a climate change scenario. Temperature was a more important determinant of the climatic suitability of the pest than relative humidity or precipitation. The availability of host plants (Arecaceae) only had a slight impact on climate suitability in some regions. CONCLUSION The projected potential distribution of B. longissima will help to determine the impacts of climate change and will provide supportive information for the development of management strategies to reduce future economic and ecological losses. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry

The Asian longhorned beetle (ALB) Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) is an important wood-boring pest that has caused substantial damage to broadleaf trees in Asia, North America, and Europe. 2 We used the modelling software CLIMEX to project the potential global distribution of ALB based on both historical and future (2021-2050) climate conditions. ALB has possible hosts in 37 genera, and their known distributions were incorporated into the model to assess their effect on pest distribution. 3 Suitable regions for ALB are predicted to be widely distributed under both historical and future climate conditions, and across all continents except Antarctica. With climate change, climate suitability would increase in the regions north of 30 ∘ N and decline in most regions south of 30 ∘ N. 4 The area of most climate-suitable regions would be covered by potential hosts, and optimum hosts would dominate. The possibility of ALB outbreaks in the Northern Hemisphere is much higher than in the Southern Hemisphere, owing to the richer abundance of hosts. 5 These results provide theoretical guidance for developing effective ALB monitoring and mitigation measures.

The ber fruit fly Carpomya vesuviana Costa (Diptera: Tephritidae) is the most destructive pests of Ziziphus spp. Carpomya vesuviana infestation causes great economic losses. We re-parameterized an existing CLIMEX model, and used the updated CliMond 30′ gridded resolution datasets within CLIMEX for the periods 1987–2016 and 2071–2100, representing historical and future climates, respectively, to predict the potential global distribution of the pest. Under the historical climate scenario, C. vesuviana had a wide climatically suitable distribution worldwide, from approximately 46° S to 50° N. Future climate change expanded the upper boundary of the potential distribution northward, and predicted that the pest would distribute approximately from 50° S to 60° N. Temperature was the primary determinant of the potential distribution of the pest among all driving variables. Irrigation was associated with a slight improvement in the climate favorability for the pest in some areas, including south-western North America, northern and southern Africa, and most of Oceania. The projections clarify the impacts of climate change on the potential global distribution of C. vesuviana, and are instructive for quarantine and management agencies for reducing economic damage caused by the fly and preventing expansion of C. vesuviana due to climate change.

Anoplophora chinensis (Forster) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) originates from eastern Asia (China, Japan, Korea). Its common name is the citrus longhorned beetle (CLB), as its feeding causes severe damage to citrus plants (Strangi et al., 2013). Generally, CLB require 1-2 years to complete their life cycle in their native range and in southern Europe but have a longer life cycle in temperate regions such as the United Kingdom (Adachi, 1994). Young larvae begin feeding under the bark in early spring and then migrate into the heartwood to pupate. Between late spring to late summer, CLB adults emerge from the base of the trunk or from roots (Hérard et al., 2006). Adults feed on twigs and leaf veins (Haack et al., 2010). Mating occurs later on trunks and main branches, and females make T-shaped slits in the lower bark in which they lay their eggs (EPPO, 2013). CLB is a polyphagous insect and reportedly attacks species in over 100 genera, including evergreen broadleaved trees (e.g.

The codling moth Cydia pomonella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is a destructive pest of apple (Malus domestica (Rosales: Rosaceae)), pear (Pyrus spp. (Rosales: Rosaceae)), and other pome tree fruits; outbreaks cause significant ecological and economic losses. In this study, we used CLIMEX model to predict and evaluate the global risk of C. pomonella based on historical climate data (1989–2018) and simulated future climate data (2071–2100) under the RCP4.5 scenarios. Cydia pomonella exhibited a wide distribution under both historical and future climate conditions. Climate change is predicted to expand the northern boundary of the potential distribution from approximately 60°N to 75°N. Temperature was the most dominant factor in climatic suitability for the pest. Combinations of multiple meteorological factors (relative humidity and precipitation) associated with a failure to break diapause in certain regions also affect suitability, particularly in northern South America and central Africa. Irrigation only had a slight impact on species favorability in some areas. The projections established in our study present insight into the global potential suitability of C. pomonella under climate change scenarios by the end of the 21st century. Farmers should be aware of the risk associated with the pest based on the results, which would provide guidance for quarantine agencies and trade negotiators worldwide.

The poplar and willow borer, Cryptorhynchus lapathi (L.), is a severe worldwide quarantine pest that causes great economic, social, and ecological damage in Europe, North America, and Asia. CLIMEX4.0.0 was used to study the likely impact of climate change on the potential global distribution of C. lapathi based on existing (1987–2016) and predicted (2021–2040, 2041–2080, and 2081–2100) climate data. Future climate data were simulated based on global climate models from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under the RCP4.5 projection. The potential distribution of C. lapathi under historical climate conditions mainly includes North America, Africa, Europe, and Asia. Future global warming may cause a northward shift in the northern boundary of potential distribution. The total suitable area would increase by 2080–2100. Additionally, climatic suitability would change in large regions of the northern hemisphere and decrease in a small region of the southern hemisphere. The projected potential distribution will help determine the impacts of climate change and identify areas at risk of pest invasion in the future. In turn, this will help design and implement effective prevention measures for expanding pest populations, using natural enemies, microorganisms, and physical barriers in very favorable regions to impede the movement and oviposition of C. lapathi.

Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) is one of the most important bark beetles in North America and causes considerable economic and ecological losses during outbreaks. The distribution of this pest species is likely to be altered by climate change, which may threaten currently unaffected areas. In this study, we used CLIMEX to project the potential global distribution of D. ponderosae according to both historical climate data (1987–2016) and future climate warming estimates (2021–2100) to evaluate the impact of climate change on this species. Regions with suitable climate for D. ponderosae are distributed in all continents except Antarctica under both historical and future climate conditions, and these are predicted to change continuously with climate change. Overall, climate suitability will increase in middle- and high-latitude regions and decrease in low-latitude regions, and regions most sensitive to climate change are located in the mid-latitude zone. Moreover, the shift directions and ranges of climate-suitable regions under future conditions will differ among continents, and the shift distances in the north–south direction are larger than these in the east–west direction for Africa, Asia, Europe, South America, and Oceania, indicating that shift direction is possibly mainly affected by temperature. These projected distributions may provide theoretical guidance for early-warning intervention and risk assessment.