Prediction of the Long-Term Potential Distribution of Cryptorhynchus lapathi (L.) under Climate Change

Abstract

The poplar and willow borer, Cryptorhynchus lapathi (L.), is a severe worldwide quarantine pest that causes great economic, social, and ecological damage in Europe, North America, and Asia. CLIMEX4.0.0 was used to study the likely impact of climate change on the potential global distribution of C. lapathi based on existing (1987–2016) and predicted (2021–2040, 2041–2080, and 2081–2100) climate data. Future climate data were simulated based on global climate models from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under the RCP4.5 projection. The potential distribution of C. lapathi under historical climate conditions mainly includes North America, Africa, Europe, and Asia. Future global warming may cause a northward shift in the northern boundary of potential distribution. The total suitable area would increase by 2080–2100. Additionally, climatic suitability would change in large regions of the northern hemisphere and decrease in a small region of the southern hemisphere. The projected potential distribution will help determine the impacts of climate change and identify areas at risk of pest invasion in the future. In turn, this will help design and implement effective prevention measures for expanding pest populations, using natural enemies, microorganisms, and physical barriers in very favorable regions to impede the movement and oviposition of C. lapathi.

Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Apocheima cinerarius (Erschoff) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae)

“…The growth index (GI), stress index (SI), and restricted circumstances are all elements that influence the value of EI (diapause and minimum heat accumulation during the growing season). The annual growth index (GIA) is used to define the population growth potential under different growth circumstances, which is mostly influenced by the temperature index (TI) and the moisture index (MI) [25]. The stress index, which represents the surviving extremes of temperature and humidity, allows the distribution to be determined in terms of bad seasonal circumstances.…”

The Potential Distribution of Rice Water Weevil (<i>Lissorhoptrus oryzophilus</i>) in China under Current and Future Climatic Conditions

“…This can affect the geographical distribution of insects [26]. Previous study showed that as the global climate warmed up, pests spread from low latitudes to high latitudes and from low altitudes to high altitudes [27][28][29]. In addition, climatic factors tend to affect the growth of crops, resulting in changes in the phenological synchronicity of the species, which also changes the suitable distribution of insects [30].…”