Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution and Range Shift of Dendroctonus ponderosae (Coleoptera: Scolytidae)

Abstract

Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) is one of the most important bark beetles in North America and causes considerable economic and ecological losses during outbreaks. The distribution of this pest species is likely to be altered by climate change, which may threaten currently unaffected areas. In this study, we used CLIMEX to project the potential global distribution of D. ponderosae according to both historical climate data (1987–2016) and future climate warming estimates (2021–2100) to evaluate the impact of climate change on this species. Regions with suitable climate for D. ponderosae are distributed in all continents except Antarctica under both historical and future climate conditions, and these are predicted to change continuously with climate change. Overall, climate suitability will increase in middle- and high-latitude regions and decrease in low-latitude regions, and regions most sensitive to climate change are located in the mid-latitude zone. Moreover, the shift directions and ranges of climate-suitable regions under future conditions will differ among continents, and the shift distances in the north–south direction are larger than these in the east–west direction for Africa, Asia, Europe, South America, and Oceania, indicating that shift direction is possibly mainly affected by temperature. These projected distributions may provide theoretical guidance for early-warning intervention and risk assessment.

Impacts of climate change and host plant availability on the potential distribution of Bradysia odoriphaga (Diptera: Sciaridae) in China

“…[17][18][19] Up to now, the potential distribution of many insect species, such as Dendroctonus ponderosae, Eogystia hippophaecolus, Brontispa longissima, Bemisia argentifolii, and Tuta absoluta have been projected. [20][21][22][23][24] To better understand the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of B. odoriphaga in the Chinese mainland, the present study used the 'Compare Location' function in CLI-MEX and the inverse distance-weighted (IDW) interpolation function in ArcGIS to predict the potential distribution of B. odoriphaga, using available biological and distribution data for B. odoriphaga, as well as historical climatic data and simulated future climatic data (2021-2100) for China. The results provide a theoretical basis and practical guidance for controlling the spread, monitoring, and early warning of B. odoriphaga.…”

“…At present, species distribution models (SDMs) and related tools such as CLIMEX, GARP, and MaxEnt have been widely used in ecological and evolutionary research 17–19 . Up to now, the potential distribution of many insect species, such as Dendroctonus ponderosae , Eogystia hippophaecolus , Brontispa longissima , Bemisia argentifolii , and Tuta absoluta have been projected 20–24 …”