An update of the progress achieved as part of the NOAA Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX) is provided. Included is a brief summary of the noteworthy aircraft missions flown in the years since 2005, the first year IFEX flights occurred, as well as a description of the research and development activities that directly address the three primary IFEX goals: 1) collect observations that span the tropical cyclone (TC) life cycle in a variety of environments for model initialization and evaluation; 2) develop and refine measurement strategies and technologies that provide improved real-time monitoring of TC intensity, structure, and environment; and 3) improve the understanding of physical processes important in intensity change for a TC at all stages of its life cycle. Such activities include the real-time analysis and transmission of Doppler radar measurements; numerical model and data assimilation advancements; characterization of tropical cyclone composite structure across multiple scales, from vortex scale to turbulence scale; improvements in statistical prediction of rapid intensification; and studies specifically targeting tropical cyclogenesis, extratropical transition, and the impact of environmental humidity on TC structure and evolution. While progress in TC intensity forecasting remains challenging, the activities described here provide some hope for improvement.
Test beds have become an integral part of the weather enterprise, bridging research and forecast services by transitioning innovative tools and tested methods that impact forecasts and forecast users. O ver roughly the last decade, a variety of "test beds" have come into existence focused on high-impact weather and the core tools of meteorology-observations, models, and fundamental understanding of the underlying physical processes. They have entered the proverbial "valley of death" between research and forecast operations (NAS 2000), Develop and introduce new ideas, data, etc. Input Revise and iterate Experiment and demonstrate End testing Output Test and refine loop V Assess impacts and evaluate and have survived. This paper provides a brief background on how this happened; summarizes test bed origins, methods, and selected accomplishments; and provides a perspective on the future of test beds in our field. Dabbert et al. (2005) provides a useful description of test beds from early in their development and Fig.
Collaboration between researchers, forecasters and technology specialists facilitated the development and implementation of numerous projects benefitting forecast operations.
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