sensed observations together with a transfer function derived from in situ observations. The net basin-integrated effect of El Niño and La Niñ a events on the rates of biological production in the equatorial Pacific is significant and plays a strong role in the largest known natural year-to-year perturbation of the global carbon cycle (5,25, 31). Future observations will provide data to validate the approach on larger spatial scales, extending it to off-equatorial regions and possibly to global scales. 200 (1998). 20. The 20°C isotherm depth (a proxy for the thermocline depth) was determined from the TOPEX/ Poseidon-derived sea surface height based on relationships established from the depth profiles of temperature collected by the TAO buoy array. The altimeter-derived sea level was binned into 10-day averages, with a spatial averaging of 1°ϫ 1°d egree. The depth of the 20°C isotherm was derived from eight buoys spread along the equatorial band, and these data were also averaged over the same 10-day interval as used for altimetric heights. The two data sets, covering a time period from to 1992 to 2000, were matched with respect to time and space grids. Anomalies in sea level and 20°C depth were then obtained by subtracting the mean seasonal cycle of the sea level and 20°C depth, derived from the period 1993-1996, from the original time series (1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000). The mean formulated over this period is representative of the mean as determined from longer data sets of surface wind, sea surface temperaure, and tide gauges (32). The depth of the 20°C isotherm across the entire equatorial domain (140°E to 100°W, 1°N to 1°S) for the period 1992-2000 was then calculated by adding the interannual anomalies as determined from TOPEX/Poseidon sea level anomalies to the mean state. 21. The values for depth-integrated new production and coincident thermocline depths were obtained from a variety of sources at different times and locations in the equatorial Pacific band from 1°N to 1°S. These References and Notes

Best tracks'' are National Hurricane Center (NHC) poststorm analyses of the intensity, central pressure, position, and size of Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basin tropical and subtropical cyclones. This paper estimates the uncertainty (average error) for Atlantic basin best track parameters through a survey of the NHC Hurricane Specialists who maintain and update the Atlantic hurricane database. A comparison is then made with a survey conducted over a decade ago to qualitatively assess changes in the uncertainties. Finally, the implications of the uncertainty estimates for NHC analysis and forecast products as well as for the prediction goals of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program are discussed.1 Maximum 1-min-average wind associated with the tropical cyclone at an elevation of 10 m with an unobstructed exposure (Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research 2012). 2 Cyclone size is described by the maximum extent of winds of 34, 50, and 64 kt in each of four quadrants about the center.

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