Abstract. Understanding extreme precipitation is very important for Ethiopia, which is heavily dependent on lowproductivity rainfed agriculture but lacks structural and nonstructural water regulating and storage mechanisms. There has been an increasing concern about whether there is an increasing trend in extreme precipitation as the climate changes. Existing analysis of this region has been descriptive, without taking advantage of the advances in extreme value modeling. After reviewing the statistical methodology on extremes, this paper presents an analysis based on the generalized extreme value modeling with daily time series of precipitation records at Debre Markos in the Northwestern Highlands of Ethiopia. We found no strong evidence to reject the null hypothesis that there is no increasing trend in extreme precipitation at this location.

The hydrological behavior and functioning of twenty catchments in the Upper Blue Nile basin have been analyzed using a top-down modeling approach that is based on Budyko's hypotheses. The objective is to obtain better understanding of catchment response for prediction in ungauged catchments. The water balance analysis using Budyko-type curve at annual scale reveals that the aridity index does not exert a first order control in most of the catchments. This implies the need to increase model complexity to a monthly time scale to include the effects of seasonal soil moisture dynamics. The dynamic water balance model used in this study predicts the direct runoff and other processes based on limit concept. The uncertainty of model parameters has been assessed using the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation). The results show that the majority of the parameters are reasonably well identifiable. Moreover, a multi-objective model calibration strategy has been employed within the GLUE framework to emphasize the different aspects of the hydrographs on low and high flows. The model has been calibrated and validated against observed streamflow time series and it shows good performance for the twenty catchments of the upper Blue Nile. During the calibration period (1995–2000) the Nash and Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency for monthly flow prediction varied between 0.52 to 0.93 during high flows, while it varied between 0.32 to 0.90 during low flows (logarithms of flow series). The model is parsimonious and it is suggested that the resulting parameters can be used to predict monthly stream flows in the ungauged catchments of the Upper Blue Nile basin, which accounts about 60% of total Nile basin flow

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Understanding the extreme precipitation is very important for Ethiopia, which is heavily dependent on low-productivity rainfed agriculture but lacks structural and non-structural water regulating and storage mechanisms. There has been increasing concern about whether there is an increasing trend in extreme precipitation as the climate changes. Existing analysis of this region has been descriptive, without taking advantage of the advances in extreme value modeling. After reviewing the statistical methodology on extremes, this paper presents the first analysis of extremes of this region with daily time series of precipitation records at Debre Markos in the northwestern Highlands of Ethiopia. We found no strong evidence to reject the null hypothesis that there is no increasing trend in extreme precipitation at this location

The demand for water-energy (WE) should be addressed with their sustainable supply in the long-term planning. The total energy demand was estimated to be around 14,000000 and 53,000000 MWh for 2030 and 2050 years respectively. These years’ predicted water demand was 0.4 and 0.7 billion-cubic-meter. Based on the estimated energy and water demand, sustainable supply through WE management were determined. In 2030 and 2050 the water supply-demand balance index is around 1, showed water demand will be met for respective years, whereas the energy supply-balance after the intervention become around 0.9 and 0.7. The study results clearly predicted future WE demand of Addis Ababa city and have been put their quantified supply suggestion.