The demand for water-energy (WE) should be addressed with their sustainable supply in the long-term planning. The total energy demand was estimated to be around 14,000000 and 53,000000 MWh for 2030 and 2050 years respectively. These years’ predicted water demand was 0.4 and 0.7 billion-cubic-meter. Based on the estimated energy and water demand, sustainable supply through WE management were determined. In 2030 and 2050 the water supply-demand balance index is around 1, showed water demand will be met for respective years, whereas the energy supply-balance after the intervention become around 0.9 and 0.7. The study results clearly predicted future WE demand of Addis Ababa city and have been put their quantified supply suggestion.
As part of sustainable urban planning, the demand for water and energy (WE) should also be addressed. The Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis (WEKA) modeling tool was employed to relate the historical WE consumptions with the population and economic growth scenarios using a linear regression model. The performance of the model was evaluated to properly identify the most influential drivers in each sector. The WE demand prediction was made for each year from 2016 up to 2050. Consequently, the long-term time interval for demand analysis is important rather than the consequent year for planning. The total electric energy demand including residential, street-lighting, commercial and industrial sectors was estimated to be around 14,000 and 53,000 Giga Watt hour (GWh) for the years 2030 and 2050, respectively. These years' forecasted petroleum demand was around 8840 and 30,140 for diesel, 13,860 and 52,700 for gasoline, and 1230 and 9890 GWh for kerosene and the water demand including residential, commercial and industrial sectors were 520 and 1600 million cubic meters (MCM). The proposed methodology can comfortably be used to predict the urban WE demand corresponding to economic (gross domestic product and per capita income) and population growth at different scenarios which could support policy makers.
This study aims to understand the long-term (2020–2050) urban water–energy–food (WEF) resources access and sustainability in Addis Ababa city through a nexus modeling approach. Several feasible scenarios in line with improving WEF resources supply and access through conservation, system rehabilitation and technology input are explored. The water system scenarios include rehabilitation and conservation scenario, water supply enhancement scenario, technology input scenario and integrated water improvement scenario. The energy scenario includes energy conservation scenario and new renewable supply enhancement scenarios and integration of both scenarios as integrated energy scenario. The food system scenarios include crop yield productivity and irrigation water use efficiency scenarios of urban agricultural system. The integrated WEF nexus scenario is the integration of all scenarios under one nexus framework. The results are evaluated against baseline scenario. At a system level, the integrated water scenario result provides a water saving potential of 26 and 52% from the baseline scenario by 2030 and 2050, respectively, whereas the integrated energy use scenario saves energy by as much as 22 and 48%. For respective years, under the integrated WEF nexus scenario, the integrated water use scenario for low energy intensity reduces the energy use for urban water system by 23 and 72% from the baseline scenario. Similarly, urban food production have also shown enhancement. Urban food production system in Addis Ababa city is relatively small and does not significantly affect the food import from other parts of the country. Overall, the results WEF nexus modeling approach revealed the importance of exploring integrated nexus approach to sustainable urban water energy and food development and management as a first attempt at the urban scale.
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