Trend analysis of extreme precipitation in the Northwestern Highlands of Ethiopia with a case study of Debre Markos

Shang, Hongwei; Yan, Jun; Gebremichael, Mekonnen; Ayalew, Semu Moges

doi:10.5194/hess-15-1937-2011

Cited by 57 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 30 publications

(23 reference statements)

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“…Precipitation trends in Ethiopia have been the subject of several studies, with sometimes contrasting conclusions (Conway 2000;Funk, Asfaw et al 2003;Seleshi and Zanke 2004;Bewket and Conway 2007;Shang, Yan et al 2011). In the data set used in this study, trend analysis indicates that rainfall in southern Ethiopia has decreased from 1971 till the present, both annually and in the northern hemisphere spring and summer seasons.…”

Section: Trends In Seasonal Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent drought and precipitation tendencies in Ethiopia

Viste

Korecha

Sorteberg

2012

Theor Appl Climatol

366

285

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In 2011, drought in the Horn of Africa again made news headlines. This study aims to quantify the meteorological component of this and other drought episodes in Ethiopia since 1971. A monthly precipitation data set for 14 homogeneous rainfall zones was constructed based on 174 gauge observations. As a measure of drought, the Standardized Precipitation Index was calculated on seasonal, annual and biannual timescales for each zone. The results point to 2009 as a year of exceptionally widespread drought. All zones experienced some degree of drought at the annual scale, although in most zones, previous droughts were more extreme. On the national level, 2009 was the second driest year in the period, surpassed only by the historic drought year 1984. Linear regression analysis indicates a general decline in precipitation in southern Ethiopia, during both February-May and June-September. In the central and northern highlands, the trend analysis did not provide evidence of similar tendencies. However, spring droughts have appeared more frequently in all parts of Ethiopia during the last 10-15 years than during the previous decades.

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Section: Trends In Seasonal Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent drought and precipitation tendencies in Ethiopia

Viste

Korecha

Sorteberg

2012

Theor Appl Climatol

366

285

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“…Goswami et al 2006, Douglas and Fairbank 2011, Shang et al 2011, Shahid 2011. Also, there had been many studies investigating rainfall trends in Australia (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme Rainfall Nonstationarity Investigation and Intensity–Frequency–Duration Relationship

2014

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Non-stationary behaviour of recent climate increases concerns amongst hydrologists about the currently used design rainfall estimates. Therefore, it is necessary to perform analysis to confirm stationarity or detect non-stationarity of extreme rainfall data in order to derive accurate design rainfall estimates for infrastructure projects and flood mitigation works.Extreme rainfall non-stationarity analysis of the storm durations from 6 min to 72 hours was conducted in this study using data from the Melbourne Regional Office station in Melbourne (Australia) for the period of 1925-2010. Stationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) models were constructed to obtain Intensity-Frequency-Duration relationships for the above storm durations using data of two time periods : 1925-1966 and 1967-2010 after identifying the year 1967 as the change point year. Design rainfall estimates of the stationary models for the two periods were compared to identify the possible changes. Non-stationary GEV models, which were developed for storm durations that showed statistically significant extreme rainfall trends, did not show advantage over stationary GEV models. There was no evidence of non-stationarity according to stationarity tests, despite the presence of statistically significant extreme rainfall trends. The developed methodology consisting of trend and nonstationarity tests, change point analysis, and stationary and non-stationary GEV models was demonstrated successfully using the data of the selected station.

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“…Therefore, conforming stationarity or detecting nonstationarity is crucial for extreme rainfall observations [3,4]. There are several studies which have been conducted around the world in order to examine stationarity/nonstationarity and trend analysis of extreme rainfall data [5][6][7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing trend and developing an empirical formula for estimating rainfall intensity: a case study Eskisehir city, Turkey

Hadi

Tombul

2017

MATEC Web Conf.

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Abstract. Trend and stationarity analysis conducted for the city center of Eskisehir province, Turkey. The Intensity-Duration -Frequency (IDF) curves and formulas for the estimation of the design rainfall intensity have been developed. Through the application of four different frequency methods, the IDF has been developed for a record of 64 years. The functions employed are; Normal, Log -Normal, Gumbel, and Log -Pearson Type III. A formula for each function developed by determining the parameters with the help of a non-linear regression method. The most appropriate fit of probability distribution determined by goodness of fit test i.e. Chi -Square. The results of the study revealed no evidence of significant trend or nonstationarity in any duration. With an exception to the Normal function which exceeded the critical region in several durations, all the functions found to show high fitting. LPT III identified as the best fit. The coefficient of correlation for the developed formulas found high in all the functions except for LPT III. The study endorsed that the estimation of rainfall intensity for any storm duration and return period can be done for Eskisehir using LPT III and Gumbel formulas as they are evaluated as best fitting.

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Trend analysis of extreme precipitation in the Northwestern Highlands of Ethiopia with a case study of Debre Markos

Cited by 57 publications

References 30 publications

Recent drought and precipitation tendencies in Ethiopia

Recent drought and precipitation tendencies in Ethiopia

Extreme Rainfall Nonstationarity Investigation and Intensity–Frequency–Duration Relationship

Analyzing trend and developing an empirical formula for estimating rainfall intensity: a case study Eskisehir city, Turkey

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