Estuaries and coastal waters are essential nursery habitats for many marine species, and especially for flatfishes. Thus, investigating how anthropogenic disturbances affect the quality of these habitats is of major importance to understand their consequences on the population renewal of marine species.The aim of the present study was to analyse the effects of estuarine habitat degradation on the population of the common sole in the Eastern Channel, a key species in the fish community and fisheries in this area. We especially focused on the drastic drop in the surface area and on the low water quality of the Seine estuary, the main river of the Eastern Channel.

For many marine fish species, recruitment is strongly related to larval survival and dispersal to nursery areas. Simulating larval drift should help assessing the sensitivity of recruitment variability to early life history. An individual‐based model (IBM) coupled to a hydrodynamic model was used to simulate common sole larval supply from spawning areas to coastal and estuarine nursery grounds at the population scale in the eastern Channel on a 14‐yr time series, from 1991 to 2004. The IBM allowed each particle released to be transported by currents from the hydrodynamic model, to grow with temperature, to migrate vertically giving stage development, and possibly to die according to drift duration, representing the life history from spawning to metamorphosis. Despite sensitivity to the larval mortality rate, the model provided realistic simulations of cohort decline and spatio‐temporal variability of larval supply. The model outputs were analysed to explore the effects of hydrodynamics and life history on the interannual variability of settled sole larvae in coastal nurseries. Different hypotheses of the spawning spatial distribution were also tested, comparing homogeneous egg distribution to observation and potential larval survival (PLS) maps. The sensitivity analyses demonstrated that larval supply is more sensitive to the life history along larval drift than to the phenology and volume of spawning, providing explanations for the lack of significant stock–recruitment relationship. Nevertheless, larval supply is sensitive to spawning distribution. Results also suggested a very low connectivity between supposed different sub‐populations in the eastern Channel.

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

This paper proposes a hierarchical Bayesian framework for modeling the life cycle of marine exploited fish with a spatial perspective. The application was developed for a nursery-dependent fish species, the common sole (Solea solea), on the Eastern Channel population (Western Europe). The approach combined processes of different natures and various sources of observations within an integrated framework for life-cycle modeling: (1) outputs of an individual-based model for larval drift and survival that provided yearly estimates of the dispersion and mortality of eggs and larvae, from spawning grounds to settlement in several coastal nurseries; (2) a habitat suitability model, based on juvenile trawl surveys coupled with a geographic information system, to estimate juvenile densities and surface areas of suitable juvenile habitat in each nursery sector; (3) a statistical catch-at-age model for the estimation of the numbers-at-age and the fishing mortality on subadults and adults. The approach provided estimates of hidden variables and parameters of key biological significance. A simulation approach provided insight to the robustness of the approach when only weak data are available. Estimates of spawning biomass, fishing mortality, and recruitment were close to the estimations derived from stock-assessment working groups. In addition, the model quantified mortality along the life cycle, and estimated site-specific density-dependent mortalities between settled larvae and age-0 juveniles in each nursery ground. This provided a better understanding of the productivity and the specific contribution of each nursery ground toward recruitment and population renewal. Perspectives include further development of the modeling framework on the common sole and applications to other fish species to disentangle the effects of multiple interacting stress factors (e.g., estuarine and coastal nursery habitat degradation, fishing pressure) on population renewal and to develop risk analysis in the context of marine spatial planning for sustainable management of fish resources.

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SummaryExogenous mechanical perturbations on living tissues are commonly used to investigate whether cell effectors can respond to mechanical cues. However, in most of these experiments, the applied mechanical stress and/or the biological response are described only qualitatively. We developed a quantitative pipeline based on microindentation and image analysis to investigate the impact of a controlled and prolonged compression on microtubule behaviour in the Arabidopsis shoot apical meristem, using microtubule fluorescent marker lines. We found that a compressive stress, in the order of magnitude of turgor pressure, induced apparent microtubule bundling. Importantly, that response could be reversed several hours after the release of compression. Next, we tested the contribution of microtubule severing to compression‐induced bundling: microtubule bundling seemed less pronounced in the katanin mutant, in which microtubule severing is dramatically reduced. Conversely, some microtubule bundles could still be observed 16 h after the release of compression in the spiral2 mutant, in which severing rate is instead increased. To quantify the impact of mechanical stress on anisotropy and orientation of microtubule arrays, we used the nematic tensor based FibrilTool ImageJ/Fiji plugin. To assess the degree of apparent bundling of the network, we developed several methods, some of which were borrowed from geostatistics. The final microtubule bundling response could notably be related to tissue growth velocity that was recorded by the indenter during compression. Because both input and output are quantified, this pipeline is an initial step towards correlating more precisely the cytoskeleton response to mechanical stress in living tissues.

The North Sea cod (Gadus morhua, L.) stock has continuously declined over the past four decades linked with overfishing and climate change. Changes in stock structure due to overfishing have made the stock largely dependent on its recruitment success, which greatly relies on environmental conditions. Here we focus on the spatio-temporal variability of cod recruitment in an effort to detect changes during the critical early life stages. Using International Bottom Trawl Survey (IBTS) data from 1974 to 2011, a major spatio-temporal change in the distribution of cod recruits was identified in the late 1990s, characterized by a pronounced decrease in the central and southeastern North Sea stock. Other minor spatial changes were also recorded in the mid-1980s and early 1990s. We tested whether the observed changes in recruits distribution could be related with direct (i.e. temperature) and/or indirect (i.e. changes in the quantity and quality of zooplankton prey) effects of climate variability. The analyses were based on spatially-resolved time series, i.e. sea surface temperature (SST) from the Hadley Center and zooplankton records from the Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey. We showed that spring SST increase was the main driver for the most recent decrease in cod recruitment. The late 1990s were also characterized by relatively low total zooplankton biomass, particularly of energy-rich zooplankton such as the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, which have further contributed to the decline of North Sea cod recruitment. Long-term spatially-resolved observations were used to produce regional distribution models that could further be used to predict the abundance of North Sea cod recruits based on temperature and zooplankton food availability.