Projecting changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources: A critical review of the suite of modelling approaches used in the large European project VECTORS

Abstract

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

A Review of the Tools Used for Marine Monitoring in the UK: Combining Historic and Contemporary Methods with Modeling and Socioeconomics to Fulfill Legislative Needs and Scientific Ambitions

“…A range of tools (Piroddi et al, 2015;Peck et al, 2016) have been developed to map habitats and communities. Distribution modeling can predict the spatial patterns in habitats using observations of environmental variables (Stephens and Diesing, 2015) and statistical models can provide information on uncertainty.…”

Responses of summer phytoplankton biomass to changes in top-down forcing: Insights from comparative modelling

“…Food web models have become an important tool in examining how reductions in specific predators or prey impact on other ecosystem components (Travers et al 2007, Daewel et al 2014, Peck et al 2018.…”

Uses of Innovative Modeling Tools within the Implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive

“…There is a risk that the pressure to implement and fulfill legislative requirements could affect the entire process of assessment. Acknowledgment of uncertainty (in both data and models; Carstensen and Lindegarth, 2016;Payne et al, 2016;Peck et al, 2016), recognition of coupled socialecological systems and that decisions reflect societal choice, and the acknowledgment of these trade-offs are therefore needed in GES indicator development (Long et al, 2015). Models can support these aims, as exemplified below.…”

“…A range of modeling tools (Piroddi et al, 2015a;Peck et al, 2016) have been developed to map habitats and species assemblages and include: distribution modeling techniques to predict the spatial patterns in species distribution, abundance and habitats using observations of environmental variables (e.g., bathymetric and seabed types distribution; Stephens and Diesing, 2015) and new techniques to model connectivity between communities (Chust et al, 2016). Statistical models, in particular, can generate outputs that are easy to communicate (Reiss et al, 2014) and provide information on the uncertainty in the estimates (Figure 3).…”

“…Ecological models (hereafter "models"), including a range of conceptual, mathematical, and statistical representations of ecosystem components and processes (e.g., Peck et al, 2016), have an important role to play in the assessment and management cycle. Models provide the means to test how different trophic levels and the biogeochemistry of marine systems respond under specific scenarios of management (e.g., fisheries, Allen and Clarke, 2007) and environmental change (e.g., climate, Artioli et al, 2014).…”