To anticipate the response of fish populations to climate change, we developed a framework that integrates requirements in all life stages to assess impacts across the entire life cycle. The framework was applied on plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) and Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) in the North Sea, Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the Norwegian/Barents Seas and European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) in the Bay of Biscay. In each case study, we reviewed habitats required by each life stage, habitat availability, and connectivity between habitats. We then explored how these could be altered by climate change. We documented environmental processes impacting habitat availability and connectivity, providing an integrated view at the population level and in a spatial context of potential climate impacts. A key result was that climate-driven changes in larval dispersion seem to be the major unknown. Our summary suggested that species with specific habitat requirements for spawning (herring) or nursery grounds (plaice) display bottlenecks in their life cycle. Among the species examined, anchovy could cope best with environmental variability. Plaice was considered to be least resilient to climate-driven changes due to its strict connectivity between spawning and nursery grounds. For plaice in the North Sea, habitat availability was expected to reduce with climate change. For North Sea herring, Norwegian cod and Biscay anchovy, climate-driven changes were expected to have contrasting impacts depending on the life stage. Our review highlights the need to integrate physiological and behavioural processes across the life cycle to project the response of specific populations to climate change. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

In biological modelling of the coastal phytoplankton dynamics, the light attenuation coefficient is often expressed as a function of the concentrations of chlorophyll and mineral suspended particulate matter (SPM). In order to estimate the relationship between these parameters over the continental shelf of the northern Bay of Biscay, a set of in situ data has been gathered for the period 1998-2003 when SeaWiFS imagery is available. These data comprise surface measurements of the concentrations of total SPM, chlorophyll, and irradiance profiles from which is derived the attenuation coefficient of the photosynthetically available radiation, K PAR. The performance of the IFREMER look-up table used to retrieve the chlorophyll concentration from the SeaWiFS radiance is evaluated on this new set of data. The quality of the estimated chlorophyll concentration is assessed from a comparison of the variograms of the in situ and satellite-derived chlorophyll concentrations. Once the chlorophyll concentration is determined, the non living SPM, which is defined as the SPM not related to the dead or alive endogenous phytoplankton, is estimated from the radiance at 555 nm by inverting a semi-analytic model. This method provides realistic estimations of concentrations of chlorophyll and SPM over the continental shelf all over the year. Finally, a relationship, based on non living SPM and chlorophyll, is proposed to estimate K PAR on the continental shelf of the Bay of Biscay. The same formula is applied to non living SPM and chlorophyll concentrations, observed in situ or derived from SeaWiFS radiance.

For many marine fish species, recruitment is strongly related to larval survival and dispersal to nursery areas. Simulating larval drift should help assessing the sensitivity of recruitment variability to early life history. An individual‐based model (IBM) coupled to a hydrodynamic model was used to simulate common sole larval supply from spawning areas to coastal and estuarine nursery grounds at the population scale in the eastern Channel on a 14‐yr time series, from 1991 to 2004. The IBM allowed each particle released to be transported by currents from the hydrodynamic model, to grow with temperature, to migrate vertically giving stage development, and possibly to die according to drift duration, representing the life history from spawning to metamorphosis. Despite sensitivity to the larval mortality rate, the model provided realistic simulations of cohort decline and spatio‐temporal variability of larval supply. The model outputs were analysed to explore the effects of hydrodynamics and life history on the interannual variability of settled sole larvae in coastal nurseries. Different hypotheses of the spawning spatial distribution were also tested, comparing homogeneous egg distribution to observation and potential larval survival (PLS) maps. The sensitivity analyses demonstrated that larval supply is more sensitive to the life history along larval drift than to the phenology and volume of spawning, providing explanations for the lack of significant stock–recruitment relationship. Nevertheless, larval supply is sensitive to spawning distribution. Results also suggested a very low connectivity between supposed different sub‐populations in the eastern Channel.

The recent increase in North Sea anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus most likely stems from climate-driven improvement in recruitment to remnant sympatric populations.

95, email address : christophe.lett@ird.fr sakina.ayata@normalesup.org (S.-D. Ayata), martin.huret@ifremer.fr (M. Huret), irisson@normalesup.org (J.-O. Irisson). Abstract:Climate may act on the dispersal and connectivity of marine populations through changes in the oceanic circulation and temperature, and by modifying species' prey and predator distributions. As dispersal and connectivity remain difficult to assess in situ, a first step in studying the effects of climate change can be achieved using biophysical models. To date, only a few biophysical models have been used for this purpose. Here we review these studies and also include results from other recent modelling efforts. We show that increased sea temperature, a major change expected under climate warming, may impact dispersal and connectivity patterns via changes in reproductive phenology (e.g., shift in the spawning season), transport (e.g., reduced pelagic larval duration under faster development rates), mortality (e.g., changes in the exposure to lethal temperatures), and behaviour (e.g., increased larval swimming speed). Projected changes in circulation are also shown to have large effects on the simulated dispersal and connectivity patterns. Although these biophysical modelling studies are useful preliminary approaches to project the potential effects of climate change, we highlight their current limitations and discuss the way forward, in particular the need for adequate coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical simulations using atmospheric forcing from realistic climate change scenarios.

Chassot, E., Bonhommeau, S., Reygondeau, G., Nieto, K., Polovina, J. J., Huret, M., Dulvy, N. K., and Demarcq, H. 2011. Satellite remote sensing for an ecosystem approach to fisheries management. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 651–666. Satellite remote sensing (SRS) of the marine environment has become instrumental in ecology for environmental monitoring and impact assessment, and it is a promising tool for conservation issues. In the context of an ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM), global, daily, systematic, high-resolution images obtained from satellites provide a good data source for incorporating habitat considerations into marine fish population dynamics. An overview of the most common SRS datasets available to fishery scientists and state-of-the-art data-processing methods is presented, focusing on recently developed techniques for detecting mesoscale features such as eddies, fronts, filaments, and river plumes of major importance in productivity enhancement and associated fish aggregation. A comprehensive review of remotely sensed data applications in fisheries over the past three decades for investigating the relationships between oceanographic conditions and marine resources is provided, emphasizing how synoptic and information-rich SRS data have become instrumental in ecological analyses at community and ecosystem scales. Finally, SRS data, in conjunction with automated in situ data-acquisition systems, can provide the scientific community with a major source of information for ecosystem modelling, a key tool for implementing an EAFM.

As an initial step in establishing mechanistic relationships between environmental variability and recruitment in Atlantic cod Gadhus morhua along the coast of the western Gulf of Maine, we assessed transport success of larvae from major spawning grounds to nursery areas with particle tracking using the unstructured grid model FVCOM (finite volume coastal ocean model). In coastal areas, dispersal of early planktonic life stages of fish and invertebrate species is highly dependent on the regional dynamics and its variability, which has to be captured by our models. With state-of-theart forcing for the year 1995, we evaluate the sensitivity of particle dispersal to the timing and location of spawning, the spatial and temporal resolution of the model, and the vertical mixing scheme. A 3 d frequency for the release of particles is necessary to capture the effect of the circulation variability into an averaged dispersal pattern of the spawning season. The analysis of sensitivity to model setup showed that a higher resolution mesh, tidal forcing, and current variability do not change the general pattern of connectivity, but do tend to increase within-site retention. Our results indicate strong downstream connectivity among spawning grounds and higher chances for successful transport from spawning areas closer to the coast. The model run for January egg release indicates 1 to 19% within-spawning ground retention of initial particles, which may be sufficient to sustain local populations. A systematic sensitivity analysis still needs to be conducted to determine the minimum mesh and forcing resolution that adequately resolves the complex dynamics of the western Gulf of Maine. Other sources of variability, i.e. large-scale upstream forcing and the biological environment, also need to be considered in future studies of the interannual variability in transport and survival of the early life stages of cod.

Dispersal of fish early life stages explains part of the recruitment success, through interannual variability in spawning, transport and survival. Dispersal results from a complex interaction between physical and biological processes acting at different temporal and spatial scales, and at the individual or population level. In this paper we quantify the response of anchovy egg and larval dispersal in the Bay of Biscay to the following sources of variability: vertical larval behaviour, drift duration, adult spawning location and timing, and spatio-temporal variability in the hydrodynamics. We use simulations of Lagrangian trajectories in a 3-dimensional hydrodynamic model, as well as spatial indices describing different properties of the dispersal kernel: the mean transport (distance, direction), its variance, occupation of space by particles and their aggregation. We show that larval drift duration has a major impact on the dispersion at scales of not, vert, similar100 km, but that vertical behaviour becomes dominant reducing dispersion at scales of not, vert, similar1-10 km. Spawning location plays a major role in explaining connectivity patterns, in conjunction with spawning temporal variability. Interannual variability in the circulation dominates over seasonal variability. However, seasonal patterns become predominant for coastal spawning locations, revealing a recurrent shift in the direction of dispersal during the anchovy spawning season.