The Climate of Rebellion in the Early Modern Ottoman Empire explores the serious and far-reaching impacts of Little Ice Age climate fluctuations in Ottoman lands. This study demonstrates how imperial systems of provisioning and settlement that defined Ottoman power in the 1500s came unraveled in the face of ecological pressures and extreme cold and drought, leading to the outbreak of the destructive Celali Rebellion (1595–1610). This rebellion marked a turning point in Ottoman fortunes, as a combination of ongoing Little Ice Age climate events, nomad incursions and rural disorder postponed Ottoman recovery over the following century, with enduring impacts on the region's population, land use and economy.

This article analyses high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Central and Eastern Mediterranean and compares them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for the Crusader period in the Levant (1095–1290 CE), the Mamluk regime in Transjordan (1260–1516 CE) and the Ottoman crisis and Celâlî Rebellion (1580–1610 CE). During the three time intervals, environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies. We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. Our research emphasises the challenges, opportunities and limitations of linking proxy records, palaeoreconstructions and model simulations to better understand how climate can affect human history.

Speakers' prosodic marking of syntactic constituency is often measured in sentence reading tasks that lack realistic situational constraints on speaking. Results from such studies can be criticized because the pragmatic goals of readers differ dramatically from those of speakers in typical conversation. On the other hand, recordings of unscripted speech do not readily yield the carefully controlled contrasts required for many research purposes. Our research employs a cooperative game task, in which two speakers use utterances from a predetermined set to negotiate moves around gameboards. Results from a set of early versus late closure ambiguities suggest that speakers signal this syntactic difference with prosody even when the utterance context fully disambiguates the structure. Phonetic and phonological analyses show reliable prosodic disambiguation in speakers' productions; results of a comprehension task indicate that listeners can successfully use prosodic cues to categorize syntactically ambiguous fragments as portions of early or late closure utterances.

Abstract. Narrative evidence contained within historical documents and inscriptions provides an important record of climate variability for periods prior to the onset of systematic meteorological data collection. A common approach used by historical climatologists to convert such qualitative information into continuous quantitative proxy data is through the generation of ordinal-scale climate indices. There is, however, considerable variability in the types of phenomena reconstructed using an index approach and the practice of index development in different parts of the world. This review, written by members of the PAGES (Past Global Changes) CRIAS working group – a collective of climate historians and historical climatologists researching Climate Reconstructions and Impacts from the Archives of Societies – provides the first global synthesis of the use of the index approach in climate reconstruction. We begin by summarising the range of studies that have used indices for climate reconstruction across six continents (Europe, Asia, Africa, the Americas, and Australia) as well as the world's oceans. We then outline the different methods by which indices are developed in each of these regions, including a discussion of the processes adopted to verify and calibrate index series, and the measures used to express confidence and uncertainty. We conclude with a series of recommendations to guide the development of future index-based climate reconstructions to maximise their effectiveness for use by climate modellers and in multiproxy climate reconstructions.

IMPORTANCECoronary artery calcium scores (CACS) are used to help assess patients' cardiovascular status and risk. However, their best use in risk assessment beyond traditional cardiovascular factors in primary prevention is uncertain.OBJECTIVE To find, assess, and synthesize all cohort studies that assessed the incremental gain from the addition of a CACS to a standard cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk calculator (or CVD risk factors for a standard calculator), that is, comparing CVD risk score plus CACS with CVD risk score alone.EVIDENCE REVIEW Eligible studies needed to be cohort studies in primary prevention populations that used 1 of the CVD risk calculators recommended by national guidelines (Framingham Risk Score, QRISK, pooled cohort equation, NZ PREDICT, NORRISK, or SCORE) and assessed and reported incremental discrimination with CACS for estimating the risk of a future cardiovascular event.FINDINGS From 2772 records screened, 6 eligible cohort studies were identified (with 1043 CVD events in 17 961 unique participants) from the US (n = 3), the Netherlands (n = 1), Germany (n = 1), and South Korea (n = 1). Studies varied in size from 470 to 5185 participants (range of mean [SD] ages, 50 [10] to 75.1 [7.3] years; 38.4%-59.4% were women). The C statistic for the CVD risk models without CACS ranged from 0.693 (95% CI, 0.661-0.726) to 0.80. The pooled gain in C statistic from adding CACS was 0.036 (95% CI, 0.020-0.052). Among participants classified as being at low risk by the risk score and reclassified as at intermediate or high risk by CACS, 85.5% (65 of 76) to 96.4% (349 of 362) did not have a CVD event during follow-up (range, 5.1-10.0 years). Among participants classified as being at high risk by the risk score and reclassified as being at low risk by CACS, 91.4% (202 of 221) to 99.2% (502 of 506) did not have a CVD event during follow-up CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This systematic review and meta-analysis found that the CACS appears to add some further discrimination to the traditional CVD risk assessment equations used in these studies, which appears to be relatively consistent across studies. However, the modest gain may often be outweighed by costs, rates of incidental findings, and radiation risks. Although the CACS may have a role for refining risk assessment in selected patients, which patients would benefit remains unclear. At present, no evidence suggests that adding CACS to traditional risk scores provides clinical benefit.

The Little Ice Age is not a dogma. It is an increasingly firm consensus backed by considerable evidence across a variety of sources. To disprove it, or even to call it into question, would mean finding systematic errors in several types of proxy data. Kelly and Ó Gráda have not cleared any of these hurdles, or even come close. The refutation of their arguments demonstrates just how strong the evidence for the Little Ice Age has become and just how important it is for historians to take it seriously.

We examine the social burden associated with resilience to environmental shocks in pre-modern societies. We argue that analyses of state-level interventions to mitigate the consequences of catastrophic events tend to isolate these measures from their larger social contexts and thereby overlook the uneven distribution of their burden across different groups. We use three cases of pre-modern societies in the northeastern Mediterranean - the sixth century Roman Empire, the tenth century Byzantine Empire, and the sixteenth century Ottoman Empire. We demonstrate how the adaptive processes that reinforced resilience at the state level incurred different burdens for those at lower levels of the social hierarchy. We found that some groups sustained losses while others gained unexpected benefits in the context of temporary systemic instability. We also found that although elites enjoyed enhanced buffers against the adverse effects in comparison with non-elites, this did not consistently guarantee them a better outcome. We conclude that the differentiated burden of resilience could in some cases entrench existing political or economic configurations, and in other cases, overturn them. Our case studies indirectly address the pressing issue of environmental justice.

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