The supposed role of climate change on societal reorganizations in Europe 1,2 and Asia 3,4 during the first half Common Era (CE) is difficult to prove without adequate annually resolved and absolutely dated climate proxy archives 5,6. Interpretation of concurrences between cooling in the 6 th century and pandemic 7,8 , rising and falling civilizations 1-6 , human migrations and political turmoil 8-13 lacks understanding of scalar and causal mechanisms. Here we use tree-ring chronologies from the Russian Altai and Austrian Alps to reconstruct summer temperatures over the past two millennia. In both regions, conditions during Roman and recent times were warmer than throughout the medieval period. Unprecedented, long-lasting and spatially synchronized cooling following a cluster of large volcanic eruptions in 536, 540 and 547 CE 14 , was likely sustained by ocean and sea-ice feedbacks 15,16 , superimposed on a solar minimum 17. This newly defined Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA, 536 to ~660 CE) exceeded the LIA in severity. Covering much of the Northern Hemisphere, it should be considered as an additional environmental factor contributing to the establishment of the Justinian plague 7,8 , transformation of the eastern Roman and collapse of the Sasanian Empire 1,2,5 , movements out of the Asian steppe and Arabian Peninsula 8,11,12 , spread of Slavic-speaking people 9,10 , and upheavals in China 13. Annually resolved and absolutely dated insight into late Holocene climate variability is crucial in order to distinguish anthropogenic from natural forced variation 18 , and to evaluate the performance of climate model simulations 19. Spatially well-distributed palaeoclimatic archives are also essential for answering questions surrounding possible relationships between climate variability and human history 5,6. However, around the world today, there are only 13 temperature sensitive tree-ring chronologies that span the entire CE (Table S1).

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Past global climate changes had strong regional expression. To elucidate their spatio-temporal pattern, we reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia. The most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century. At multi-decadal to centennial scales, temperature variability shows distinctly different regional patterns, with more similarity within each hemisphere than between them. There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age, but all reconstructions show generally cold conditions between AD 1580 and 1880, punctuated in some regions by warm decades during the eighteenth century. The transition to these colder conditions occurred earlier in the Arctic, Europe and Asia than in North America or the Southern Hemisphere regions. Recent warming reversed the long-term cooling; during the period AD 1971-2000, the area-weighted average reconstructed temperature was higher than any other time in nearly 1,400 years

Abstract. Understanding natural climate variability and its driving factors is crucial to assessing future climate change. Therefore, comparing proxy-based climate reconstructions with forcing factors as well as comparing these with paleoclimate model simulations is key to gaining insights into the relative roles of internal versus forced variability. A review of the state of modelling of the climate of the last millennium prior to the CMIP5–PMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5–Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3) coordinated effort is presented and compared to the available temperature reconstructions. Simulations and reconstructions broadly agree on reproducing the major temperature changes and suggest an overall linear response to external forcing on multidecadal or longer timescales. Internal variability is found to have an important influence at hemispheric and global scales. The spatial distribution of simulated temperature changes during the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age disagrees with that found in the reconstructions. Thus, either internal variability is a possible major player in shaping temperature changes through the millennium or the model simulations have problems realistically representing the response pattern to external forcing. A last millennium transient climate response (LMTCR) is defined to provide a quantitative framework for analysing the consistency between simulated and reconstructed climate. Beyond an overall agreement between simulated and reconstructed LMTCR ranges, this analysis is able to single out specific discrepancies between some reconstructions and the ensemble of simulations. The disagreement is found in the cases where the reconstructions show reduced covariability with external forcings or when they present high rates of temperature change.

Abstract. The pre-industrial millennium is among the periods selected by the Paleoclimate Model Intercompari-

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