For over ten years, China has been the largest vehicle market in the world. In order to address energy security and air quality concerns, China issued the Dual Credit policy to improve vehicle efficiency and accelerate New Energy Vehicle adoption. In this paper, a market-penetration model is combined with a vehicle fleet model to assess implications on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy demand. Here we use this integrated modeling framework to study several scenarios, including hypothetical policy tweaks, oil price, battery cost and charging infrastructure for the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet. The model shows that the total GHGs of the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet are expected to peak in 2032 under the Dual Credit policy. A significant reduction in GHG emissions is possible if more efficient internal combustion engines continue to be part of the technology mix in the short term with more New Energy Vehicle penetration in the long term.

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China has set stringent fuel consumption rate (FCR) targets to address the serious environmental and energy security problems caused by vehicles. Estimating the technological progress and tradeoffs between FCR and vehicle attributes is important for assessing the viability of meeting future targets. In this paper, we explored the relationship between vehicle FCR and other attributes using a regression model with data from 2009–2016. We also quantified the difference in the tradeoff between local and joint venture brands. The result showed that from 2009 to 2016, if power and curb mass were held constant, 2.3% and 2.9% annual technological progress should have been achieved for local and joint venture brands, respectively. The effectiveness of fuel-efficient technologies for joint venture brands is generally better than that of local brands. Impacts of other attributes on FCR were also assessed. The joint venture brands made more technological progress with FCR improvement than that of local brands. Even if 100% of technological progress (assume the technological progress in the future were the same as that of 2009–2016) investment were used to improve actual FCR after 2016, it would be difficult to meet 2020 target. Accelerating the adoption of fuel-efficient technologies, and controlling weight and performance, are both needed to achieve the 2020 and 2025 targets.

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China is well known for its determination on large-scale vehicle electrification, which currently is mainly driven by fuel economy and electric vehicle policies mixed with the extensive charging infrastructure support and monetary incentives from the government. This study adopted the New Energy and Oil Consumption Credits (NEOCC) model 2020 version, a vehicle policy analysis tool developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, in order to systematically quantify the potential impacts of the “Passenger Cars Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credit Regulation”, which is a revised version released in June 2020 for the timeframe 2021–2023, the so-called dual credit policy (2021–2023). It was found that, under the dual credit policy (2021–2023), the sales of hybrid electric vehicles could reach 0.91 million by the end of 2023, which would increase much faster than they did in 2018–2020. The annual sales share of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) could reach 11.7%, and the PEV stocks could achieve 11.70 million by the end of 2023 if it keeps the expansion to the level of how it was in 2017. In addition, the BEVs with long electric range (such as 400 km) and the plug-in hybrid electric SUVs could be the most popular PEV types.