Survival rate of China passenger vehicles: A data-driven approach

Zheng, Jihu; Zhou, Yan; Yu, Rujie; Zhao, Dongchang; Lü, Zifeng; Zhang, Peng

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2019.02.037

Cited by 41 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 9 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In countries with neither a strong import nor export market, we can directly infer the CSP from the annual stock data, by comparing the number of vehicles of a certain vintage still in the stock to the number of vehicles sold in the corresponding year of first registration [ 16 , 34 ]: …”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This has been largely neglected in literature so far and named "a future challenge for more comprehensive analysis. " [16] Existing studies on car survival rates are focused on countries with a traditionally high importance of the domestic car industry and hence a predominant position of the new car market against the used car (import) market, like the United States [31,32], Japan [21,33], China [9,34,35], and Germany [36]. There is a trade-off between the depth of analysis and the geographic scope (number of countries covered): detailed studies of survival rates with a high data resolution are usually limited to individual regions (e.g.…”

Section: Existing Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…There is a trade-off between the depth of analysis and the geographic scope (number of countries covered): detailed studies of survival rates with a high data resolution are usually limited to individual regions (e.g. metropolitan areas [37,38]) or single countries [9,17,21,[31][32][33][34]. On the contrary, broader studies covering multiple countries usually have to compromise in their data resolution since the required fleet data are cumbersome to obtain due to a lack of harmonized, comprehensive data sets for multiple countries.…”

Section: Existing Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Lifespans of passenger cars in Europe: empirical modelling of fleet turnover dynamics

Held

Rosat

Georges

et al. 2021

Eur. Transp. Res. Rev.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Cars have a high share of global transport-related CO2 emissions. To model the market diffusion of new energy carriers and powertrains like electric vehicles, fleet turnover models are commonly used. A decisive influence factor for the substitution dynamics of such transformations is the survival rate of the national car fleet of a country. It represents the likelihood of a car reaching a certain lifespan. Due to a lack of data, current methods to estimate such survival probabilities neglect the imports and exports of used cars. Existing studies are limited to countries with a predominant market of new cars, compared to low numbers of imported and exported used cars. In this study, we resolve this marked simplification and propose a new method to estimate survival probabilities for countries with a high number of imported and exported used cars. Empirical data on the car stock, on inflows of new and used cars, and on outflows of exported and scrapped cars are gathered from 71 national statistics offices. Survival rates of the car fleets of 31 European countries are derived, for which we find a pronounced regional variability. Average lifespans of cars vary from 8.0 to 35.1 years, with a mean of 18.1 years in Western and 28.4 years in Eastern European countries, revealing the high impact of cross-border flows of cars. The study also shows that survival rate estimates can be improved significantly even in the absence of reliable data if a combination of a Weibull and a Gaussian distribution is used. It is likely that the predictive power of existing models (regarding the future environmental impact of car fleets) could be improved significantly if these findings were considered accordingly. The findings of this study can directly be included in fleet turnover and policy assessment models. They also enable the analysis of economic and environmental spillover effects from the imports and exports of used cars between countries.

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Existing Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Existing Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Lifespans of passenger cars in Europe: empirical modelling of fleet turnover dynamics

Held

Rosat

Georges

et al. 2021

Eur. Transp. Res. Rev.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The increasing curb weight may be mainly due to the increasing percentage of sales and stock for sport utility vehicles (SUVs) and multipurpose vehicles (MPVs). The SUVs and MPVs stock dramatically increased from 10.3% and 4.3% in 2012 to 20.0% and 6.9% in 2016, respectively [23]. Curb weight is the basis for the current FCR standard for passenger vehicles in China.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

The Technological Progress of the Fuel Consumption Rate for Passenger Vehicles in China: 2009–2016

Zheng

Liu

et al. 2019

Energies

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

China has set stringent fuel consumption rate (FCR) targets to address the serious environmental and energy security problems caused by vehicles. Estimating the technological progress and tradeoffs between FCR and vehicle attributes is important for assessing the viability of meeting future targets. In this paper, we explored the relationship between vehicle FCR and other attributes using a regression model with data from 2009–2016. We also quantified the difference in the tradeoff between local and joint venture brands. The result showed that from 2009 to 2016, if power and curb mass were held constant, 2.3% and 2.9% annual technological progress should have been achieved for local and joint venture brands, respectively. The effectiveness of fuel-efficient technologies for joint venture brands is generally better than that of local brands. Impacts of other attributes on FCR were also assessed. The joint venture brands made more technological progress with FCR improvement than that of local brands. Even if 100% of technological progress (assume the technological progress in the future were the same as that of 2009–2016) investment were used to improve actual FCR after 2016, it would be difficult to meet 2020 target. Accelerating the adoption of fuel-efficient technologies, and controlling weight and performance, are both needed to achieve the 2020 and 2025 targets.

show abstract

“…Note: The vehicle type was classified as passenger car, sport utility vehicle (SUV), multi-purpose vehicle (MPV) and cross-passenger car [33], where the cross-passenger car was represented by "others".…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Influence of Individual Differences on Diverging Behavior at the Weaving Sections of an Urban Expressway

Zheng

Xiang

et al. 2020

IJERPH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Urban expressway weaving sections suffer from a high crash risk in urban transportation systems. Studying driving behavior is an important approach to solve safety and efficiency issues at expressway weaving sections. This study aimed to investigate the influence of drivers’ individual differences on diverging behavior at expressway weaving sections. First, a k-means cluster analysis of 650 questionnaires was performed, to classify drivers into three categories: aggressive, conservative and normal. Then, the driving behavior of 45 drivers from the three categories was recorded in a driving simulator and analyzed by an analysis of variance. The results show that different types of drivers have different driving behaviors at weaving sections. Aggressive drivers have a higher mean speed and mean longitudinal deceleration, followed by normal and conservative drivers. Significant differences in the range of lane-change positions were found between 100, 150 and 200 m of weaving length for the same type of drivers, and the duration of weaving for aggressive drivers was significantly smaller than for normal and conservative drivers. A significant correlation was found between lane-change position and weaving duration. These results can help traffic engineers to propose effective control strategies for different types of drivers, to improve the safety of weaving sections.

show abstract

Survival rate of China passenger vehicles: A data-driven approach

Cited by 41 publications

References 9 publications

Lifespans of passenger cars in Europe: empirical modelling of fleet turnover dynamics

Lifespans of passenger cars in Europe: empirical modelling of fleet turnover dynamics

The Technological Progress of the Fuel Consumption Rate for Passenger Vehicles in China: 2009–2016

The Influence of Individual Differences on Diverging Behavior at the Weaving Sections of an Urban Expressway

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About