Background To keep global warming <1.5°C as recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), eating patterns must change. However, future diets should be modeled at a national level and respect cultural acceptability. Objectives We aimed to identify diets among Dutch adults satisfying nutritional and selected environmental requirements while deviating minimally from the baseline diet among Dutch adults. Methods We calculated per capita food system greenhouse gas emission (GHGE) targets derived from the IPCC 1.5-degree assessment study. Using individual adult dietary intake from the National Food Consumption Survey in the Netherlands (2007–2010) to form a baseline, we used quadratic optimization to generate diets that followed the baseline Dutch diet as closely as possible, while satisfying nutritional goals and remaining below GHGE targets. We considered 12 scenarios in which we varied GHGE targets [2050: 1.11 kg of carbon dioxide equivalent (kg CO2-eq) per person per day (pppd); 2030: 2.04 kg CO2-eq pppd; less strict 2030: 2.5 kg CO2-eq pppd; no target], modeled eating patterns (food-based dietary guidelines; flexitarian; pescatarian; lacto-ovo-vegetarian; vegan), and conducted exploratory analyses (food diversity; acceptability; food chain interdependency). Results Optimized solutions for 2030 required major decreases (<33% of baseline values) in consumption of beef, pork, cheese, snacks, and butter and increased consumption (>150% of baseline values) of legumes, fish and shellfish, peanuts, tree nuts, vegetables, soy foods, and soy drink. Eight food groups were within 33%–150% of the baseline diet among Dutch adults. The optimized solution complying to the lowest GHGE target (2050) lacked food diversity, and the (lacto-ovo) vegetarian and vegan optimized diets were prone to nutritional inadequacies. Conclusions Within Dutch eating habits, satisfying optimization constraints required a shift away from beef, cheese, butter, and snacks toward plant-based foods and fish and shellfish, questioning acceptability. Satisfying 2050 food system GHGE targets will require research in consumer preferences and breakthrough innovations in food production and processing.

Background Protein intake greater than the currently recommended amount is suggested to improve physical functioning and well-being in older adults, yet it is likely to increase diet-associated greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) if environmental sustainability is not considered. Objectives We aimed to identify dietary changes needed to increase protein intake while improving diet environmental sustainability in older adults. Methods Starting from the habitual diet of 1,354 Dutch older adults (aged 56–101 y) from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam cohort, mathematical diet optimization was used to model high-protein diets with minimized departure from habitual intake in cumulative steps. First, a high-protein diet defined as that providing ≥1.2 g protein · kg body weight−1 · d−1 was developed isocalorically while maintaining or improving nutritional adequacy of the diet. Second, adherence to the Dutch food-based dietary guidelines (FBDG) was imposed. Third, a stepwise 10% GHGE reduction was applied. Results Achieving a high-protein diet aligned with the FBDG without considering GHGEs required an increase in vegetables, legumes, nuts, whole grains, meat/dairy alternatives, dairy, and eggs and a reduction in total meat (for men only) and discretionary products, but it resulted in a 5% increase in GHGEs in men and 9% increase in women. When a stepwise GHGE reduction was additionally applied, increases in poultry and pork (mainly for women) and decreases in beef/lamb and processed meat were accrued, with total meat staying constant until a 50–60% GHGE reduction. Increases in whole grains, nuts, and meat/dairy alternatives and decreases in discretionary products were needed to lower GHGEs. Conclusions A high-protein diet aligned with FBDG can be achieved in concert with reductions in GHGEs in Dutch older adults by consuming no more than the recommended 500 g meat per week while replacing beef and lamb and processed meat with poultry and pork and increasing intake of diverse plant-protein sources.

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AbstractIntroductionThe balance between nutrition and environmental impact is key for determining whether a product is future-proof. This balance refers to the Sustainability Nutrition Balance (SNB). A product that provides nutrients which improve the quality of the current diet with a low sustainability impact has a better SNB-score than a product that contains nutrients that we tend to consume in excess (like salt or saturated fat) and/ or with a high sustainability impact. For 173 food products, we calculated the SNB-score. These scores are valuable to guide product development in the direction of future healthy and sustainable diets.Materials and methodsBased on the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) Food Consumption Database 173 products were selected, making up a European average diet. EFSA Food Composition Database was used to gather the nutritional properties of the products, like energy, dietary fibre, vitamin D, magnesium. About 60 nutritional properties were considered. The environmental impact of the products was calculated using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method. EFSA's Dietary Reference Values for Nutrients and Tolerable Upper Intake Values for Vitamins and Minerals were consulted to determine the nutritional constraints for a healthy diet.To analyse the SNB-score the amount of a product in the diet is varied in steps. At every step the diet is optimised for nutritional constraints, using quadratic programming. This allows identification of trends in terms of the environmental impact of the diet on indicators like climate change and land use. An increase of impact with an increase in amount of product leads to a higher SNB-score. This indicates that the group of products which is nutritionally equivalent to the product of focus is a more sustainable alternative. The lower the SNB-score, the more future-proof a product is in terms of sustainability and nutrition.Results and discussionThis analysis has led to a palette of SNB-scores for the 173 products in the European average diet. Meat tends to have a higher SNB-score than dairy and whole grain products can have a negative SNB-score. This means the environmental impact of the product decreases when whole grains are consumed in increasing amounts. The palette of SNB-scores serves as a benchmark for product development. To create more future-proof products the SNB-scores can be improved by changing the nutritional or environmental profile by altering recipes or production processes.

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