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Reducing meat is the most effective option for lowering the environmental impact of diets in all age-gender groups. Reducing alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages is another option. Leaving out fish and dairy products are not. The differences in nutritional requirements related to age and gender have a significant effect on the composition of the optimised diets.

Background To keep global warming <1.5°C as recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), eating patterns must change. However, future diets should be modeled at a national level and respect cultural acceptability. Objectives We aimed to identify diets among Dutch adults satisfying nutritional and selected environmental requirements while deviating minimally from the baseline diet among Dutch adults. Methods We calculated per capita food system greenhouse gas emission (GHGE) targets derived from the IPCC 1.5-degree assessment study. Using individual adult dietary intake from the National Food Consumption Survey in the Netherlands (2007–2010) to form a baseline, we used quadratic optimization to generate diets that followed the baseline Dutch diet as closely as possible, while satisfying nutritional goals and remaining below GHGE targets. We considered 12 scenarios in which we varied GHGE targets [2050: 1.11 kg of carbon dioxide equivalent (kg CO2-eq) per person per day (pppd); 2030: 2.04 kg CO2-eq pppd; less strict 2030: 2.5 kg CO2-eq pppd; no target], modeled eating patterns (food-based dietary guidelines; flexitarian; pescatarian; lacto-ovo-vegetarian; vegan), and conducted exploratory analyses (food diversity; acceptability; food chain interdependency). Results Optimized solutions for 2030 required major decreases (<33% of baseline values) in consumption of beef, pork, cheese, snacks, and butter and increased consumption (>150% of baseline values) of legumes, fish and shellfish, peanuts, tree nuts, vegetables, soy foods, and soy drink. Eight food groups were within 33%–150% of the baseline diet among Dutch adults. The optimized solution complying to the lowest GHGE target (2050) lacked food diversity, and the (lacto-ovo) vegetarian and vegan optimized diets were prone to nutritional inadequacies. Conclusions Within Dutch eating habits, satisfying optimization constraints required a shift away from beef, cheese, butter, and snacks toward plant-based foods and fish and shellfish, questioning acceptability. Satisfying 2050 food system GHGE targets will require research in consumer preferences and breakthrough innovations in food production and processing.

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Objective: To quantify the performance of food products in a sustainable diet based on the balance of their contribution to nutrient intake and environmental impact, within the context of the Dutch diet.Design: While fixing the quantity of a specific food group at different levels, optimized diets that met nutrient requirements and stayed as close as possible to the current Dutch diet were calculated, in order to understand its potential environmental impact and its nutritional quality. Bread & breakfast cereals, dairy, and meat were compared between 0 and 250% of current intake. Their performance is expressed in the relationship between the quantity of these food products and (1) the environmental impact of diets and (2) the nutrient balance of the diets.Setting: The Netherlands.Subjects: Women aged 31–50.Results: The amount of bread & breakfast cereals in the optimized diets were inversely correlated with their environmental impact. The nutrient balance of the optimized diets was maintained despite varying cereal content, with the expected improvement over the current diet. Increasing amounts of dairy in the optimized diet were associated with an increase in environmental impact and meat with a steep increase. The nutrient balance of optimized diets with varying dairy and meat contents was also maintained at high levels, even at 0% content.Conclusions: Bread and breakfast cereals are sources of nutrients with a better environmental performance compared to dairy or meat within the context of the Dutch diet. It is possible to optimize diets for environmental impact whilst maintaining a high nutrient balance.