Future-proof and sustainable healthy diets based on current eating patterns in the Netherlands

Abstract

Background To keep global warming <1.5°C as recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), eating patterns must change. However, future diets should be modeled at a national level and respect cultural acceptability. Objectives We aimed to identify diets among Dutch adults satisfying nutritional and selected environmental requirements while deviating minimally from the baseline diet among Dutch adults. Methods We calculated per capita food system greenhouse gas emission (GHGE) targets derived from the IPCC 1.5-degree assessment study. Using individual adult dietary intake from the National Food Consumption Survey in the Netherlands (2007–2010) to form a baseline, we used quadratic optimization to generate diets that followed the baseline Dutch diet as closely as possible, while satisfying nutritional goals and remaining below GHGE targets. We considered 12 scenarios in which we varied GHGE targets [2050: 1.11 kg of carbon dioxide equivalent (kg CO2-eq) per person per day (pppd); 2030: 2.04 kg CO2-eq pppd; less strict 2030: 2.5 kg CO2-eq pppd; no target], modeled eating patterns (food-based dietary guidelines; flexitarian; pescatarian; lacto-ovo-vegetarian; vegan), and conducted exploratory analyses (food diversity; acceptability; food chain interdependency). Results Optimized solutions for 2030 required major decreases (<33% of baseline values) in consumption of beef, pork, cheese, snacks, and butter and increased consumption (>150% of baseline values) of legumes, fish and shellfish, peanuts, tree nuts, vegetables, soy foods, and soy drink. Eight food groups were within 33%–150% of the baseline diet among Dutch adults. The optimized solution complying to the lowest GHGE target (2050) lacked food diversity, and the (lacto-ovo) vegetarian and vegan optimized diets were prone to nutritional inadequacies. Conclusions Within Dutch eating habits, satisfying optimization constraints required a shift away from beef, cheese, butter, and snacks toward plant-based foods and fish and shellfish, questioning acceptability. Satisfying 2050 food system GHGE targets will require research in consumer preferences and breakthrough innovations in food production and processing.

Multi-Objective Optimization of Nutritional, Environmental and Economic Aspects of Diets Applied to the Spanish Context

“…For all the optimized diets, the intake of animal protein, namely red meat, significantly decreased. This finding is coherent with previous studies, in which French [ 46 ] and Dutch [ 47 ] diets were optimized. Regarding diet affordability, all the optimized diets were more affordable than the current equivalents, except for the vegan (VEG) diet, which did not show any significant savings.…”

“…The optimization of this study used a 54% variation range. This value for the departure from the actual diet is larger compared to some studies (i.e., 20% for [ 22 ]), similar to others, such as Song et al [ 49 ] or Broekema et al [ 47 ], with variation ranges between 33 and 150%, and smaller than the global median departure value of 177% reported by Chaudhary and Krishna [ 20 ]. Nevertheless, the key message of these departure values is the fact that current food habits are far from sustainable.…”

Successful Implementation of Climate-Friendly, Nutritious and Acceptable School Meals in Practice: the OPTIMAT™ Intervention Study

“…This reduction was compensated by increased amounts of other less GHGE-intense animal products such as poultry meat and eggs, however, the major part of the substitution consisted of pulses and cereals. These findings are complementary to those of previous studies [14][15][16]36,37] where the optimization algorithm reduced meat and dairy products and increased plant-based foods to achieve nutritionally adequate, GHGE-reduced and acceptable solutions.…”

Successful Implementation of Climate-Friendly, Nutritious, and Acceptable School Meals in Practice: The OPTIMAT™ Intervention Study

“…This reduction was compensated for by increased amounts of other less GHGE-intense animal products such as poultry meat and eggs, however, the major part of the substitution consisted of pulses and cereals. These findings are complementary to those of previous studies [14][15][16]35,36], where the optimization algorithm reduced meat and dairy products and increased plant-based foods to achieve nutritionally adequate, GHGE-reduced, and acceptable solutions.…”