The purpose of this research is to create a model of the discharge as the impact of climate change due to global warming. The study was conducted using data from the Bangga watershed. Monthly water balance model used is the development of a model FJ. Mock by entering the natural phenomena that occur at this time such as climate change, canopy interception, rainfall distribution based on land use, soil type and soil characteristics. Calibration of water balance is used to determine the performance of the models to variations in climate change. Then, analysis is conducted as the effect of rain and temperature on runoff at river Bangga. The conclusion of this research were: 1) Accuracy of discharge simulation models against observed discharge is quite good, which is characterized by the Nash coefficient (Ns) close to one except for a few periods and annual rainfall runoff ratio (RE) approaches one. 2) Changes in rainfall have a considerable influence on the runoff, while the effect of temperature on runoff is not too significant.
The existence of irrigation in Indonesia is commonly quite influenced by environmental and social cultural characteristics, which the people have lived by and developed for a long time. Many factors cause changes in the pattern of water availability, which increases competition among stakeholders, as in the Sempor irrigation system area. It has four main dams, which are the Bojong Dam, Watubarut Dam, Rowokawuk Dam, and Sindut Dam; it provides approximately 5900 ha of services and receives supplies from the Great Sempor Dam (38 million m3). Currently there is a decline in the function of this dam due to sedimentation, making operational services less optimal, especially during the dry season. The methodology of this study is to perform water optimization for the balancing of water in the irrigation area. Meanwhile, the implementation of the water supply on the field considers the calculation of water availability, space, and time. In practice, the operation of water supply is held by a group system in the secondary blocks. In certain conditions, the water rotation in tertiary channels was performed by local cultural wisdom.
Urban Climate change in the past 40 years carries significant effects on the earth's surface. It shows an effect of extremely anomaly temperature because of such phenomenons as ENSO, IOD, and SOI. Thus, it can lead to seasonal change in Indonesia that affects the reservoir inflow and impacts the reservoir's operation pattern for managing power plant, irrigation, and raw water supply. This research used the relation between SST data (Nino 1.2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4, Nino 4, IOD West, IOD East, and SOI index) from NOAA and rainfall data from 1998 to 2018 in 9 stations at Wonogiri Reservoir Watershed from BBWS Bengawan Solo. With multiple linear regression analysis with a stepwise regression method, it indicated that the rainfall at Wonogiri Watershed and Inflow at Wonogiri reservoir was influenced by the SST index (Nino 1.2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4, Nino 4). Meanwhile, during the dry season, the rainfall at Wonogiri Watershed and the Inflow at Wonogiri reservoir were influenced by the SST index (IOD West, IOD East, and SOI). The rainfall and SST are related to being modeled for the probability of inflow distribution in each period (every 15 days). This inflow model influenced by climate change is to be used for the optimization model of reservoir operating pattern with Stochastic Model. The result that scenario 6 have the highest benefit, highest performance in the reliability and resiliency value in the simulation for a period between years 1979-2018.
This research intends to present a new method about the discharge modeling for mini-hydro power so it can be obtained the maximum energy. The methodology consists of modelling by the plural Flow Duration Curve (FDC). By using this method, it is hoped that the hidden discharge potency on a river can be appear and optimally used. The detail methodology is as follow: to analyze the available dependable discharge in the Konang watershed, to know the condition of Konang watershed based on the ratio pf Qmax/Qmin, to determine the suitable turbine type for the mini-hydro power of run off river in the Konang river, and to analyze the power and energy based on the single and plural Flow Duration Curve (FDC). The result can be applied on the design of run off river mini-hydro power in the Konang river, Trenggalek regency-Indonesia, By the treatment, it is hoped to be able to produce the significant decreasing of mini-hydro power energy.
Climate change in the past 20 years brings significant alteration in the earth surface. It affects extremely anomaly temperature, such as the ENSO, IOD, and SOI phenomena. The Pacific Ocean Region, the Indian Ocean Region, and the Darwin – Tahiti Region undergo an increase and a decrease in the sea surface temperatures (SST); thus, it can lead to seasonal change in Indonesia. Due to ENSO, IOD, and SOI, climate change also highly affects the operation pattern of reservoirs, food production, and other commodities. This research used SST data (Nino 1.2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4, Nino 4, IOD West, IOD East, and SOI) from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and rainfall data from 1998 to 2018 of nine stations at Wonogiri Reservoir watershed. Trend analysis of the SST index indicated an increase in trend SST index. Trend analysis of monthly rainfall average at Wonogiri Watershed area indicated a decrease in January, March, April, May, June, July, August, and October, while it increased in February, September, November, and December. Multiple linear regression analysis with the stepwise regression method indicated that during the rainy season, the rainfall at Wonogiri Watershed and Inflow at Wonogiri reservoir were influenced by the SST index (Nino 1.2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4, Nino 4). Meanwhile, during the dry season, the rainfall at Wonogiri Watershed and the Inflow at Wonogiri reservoir were influenced by the SST index (IOD West, IOD East, and SOI). With monthly correlations between SST and rainfall data that have a dynamic characteristic, it can be used to calculate the inflow probability distribution in optimizing reservoir operation patterns.
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